How Large is Excess Volatility of the EUR/USD Exchange Rate? Evidence from a GAS Approach
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017.
"Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February.
- Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
- Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007.
"Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling, and Forecasting of Return Volatility,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 701-720, November.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Roughing it Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling and Forecasting of Return Volatility," NBER Working Papers 11775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling and Forecasting of Return Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2007-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1991.
"Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 455-477.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David H. Romer & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1989. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," NBER Working Papers 3154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mankiw, N.G. & Romer, D. & Shapiro, M.D., 1989. "Stock Market Forecastability And Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," Papers 89-21, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Osler, Carol & Savaser, Tanseli, 2011.
"Extreme returns: The case of currencies,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2868-2880, November.
- Carol Osler & Tanseli Savaser, 2010. "Extreme Returns: The Case of Currencies," Working Papers 04, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
- Menkveld, Albert J. & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre, 2007. "Modeling Around-the-Clock Price Discovery for Cross-Listed Stocks Using State Space Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 213-225, April.
- Enzo Weber, 2010.
"Structural Conditional Correlation,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 392-407, Summer.
- Weber, Enzo, 2009. "Structural Conditional Correlation," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 434, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- Roll, Richard, 1984. "Orange Juice and Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 861-880, December.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003.
"Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," NBER Working Papers 8959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-1, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-23, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Djeutem, Edouard & Kasa, Kenneth, 2013.
"Robustness and exchange rate volatility,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 27-39.
- Edouard Djeutem & Ken Kasa, 2012. "Robustness and Exchange Rate Volatility," Discussion Papers dp12-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
- repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:755-793 is not listed on IDEAS
- Liu, Christina Y & He, Jia, 1991. "A Variance-Ratio Test of Random Walks in Foreign Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 773-785, June.
- King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013.
"The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
- Michael King & Carol Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2012. "The Market Microstructure Approach to Foreign Exchange: Looking Back and Looking Forward," Working Papers 54, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
- Michael R. King & Carol Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange - Looking back and looking forward," Working Paper 2013/12, Norges Bank.
- Charlie X. Cai & Qi Zhang, 2016. "High†Frequency Exchange Rate Forecasting," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(1), pages 120-141, January.
- Sentana, Enrique & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2001.
"Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 143-164, June.
- Sentana, E. & Fiorentini, G., 1997. "Identification, Estimation and Testing of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Model," Papers 9709, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
- Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana Iváñez, 1997. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Working Papers. Serie AD 1997-22, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, June.
- Marco Del Negro & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015.
"Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1342-1345.
- Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
- Suzanne S. Lee & Per A. Mykland, 2008. "Jumps in Financial Markets: A New Nonparametric Test and Jump Dynamics," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2535-2563, November.
- Milunovich George & Yang Minxian, 2013. "On Identifying Structural VAR Models via ARCH Effects," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 117-131, May.
- Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988.
"Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "VRATIO: RATS procedure to implement variance ratio unit root test procedure," Statistical Software Components RTS00231, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, April.
- Ranaldo, Angelo & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2021.
"Asymmetric information risk in FX markets,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 391-411.
- Angelo Ranaldo & Fabricius Somogyi, 2018. "Asymmetric Information Risk in FX Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1820, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Apr 2020.
- Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yılmaz, 2007.
"Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility,World-Wide,"
Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers
0711, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2008. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility, World-Wide," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-031, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2008. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Stock Market Volatility, Worldwide," NBER Working Papers 14269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Shiller, 2015. "Irrational Exuberance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 3, number 10421.
- Rothenberg, Thomas J, 1971. "Identification in Parametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(3), pages 577-591, May.
- Cochrane, John H., 1991.
"Volatility tests and efficient markets : A review essay,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 463-485, June.
- John H. Cochrane, 1991. "Volatility Tests and Efficient Markets: A Review Essay," NBER Working Papers 3591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cuthbertson, Keith & Hyde, Stuart, 2002. "Excess volatility and efficiency in French and German stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 399-418, May.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2021. "The Inelastic Market Hypothesis: A Microstructural Interpretation," Papers 2108.00242, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Christopher J. Neely, 2011. "A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange volatility and jumps," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Sep), pages 361-385.
- Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2022. "The inelastic market hypothesis: a microstructural interpretation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(10), pages 1785-1795, October.
- Aslanidis, Nektarios & Casas, Isabel, 2013. "Nonparametric correlation models for portfolio allocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2268-2283.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Numan Ülkü & Enzo Weber, 2014. "Identifying the Interaction between Foreign Investor Flows and Emerging Stock Market Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1541-1581.
- H. Henry Cao & Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017.
"Inventory Information,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 9, pages 363-413,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- H. Henry Cao & Martin D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "Inventory Information," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(1), pages 325-364, January.
- Martin D.D. Evans, H. Henry Cao, Richard K. Lyons, 2003. "Inventory Information," Working Papers gueconwpa~03-03-33, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
- H. Henry Cao & Richard K. Lyons & Martin D.D. Evans, 2003. "Inventory Information," NBER Working Papers 9893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Wu, Zhen-Xing & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2022. "Informativeness of trades around macroeconomic announcements in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
- Chaboud, Alain P. & Chiquoine, Benjamin & Hjalmarsson, Erik & Loretan, Mico, 2010.
"Frequency of observation and the estimation of integrated volatility in deep and liquid financial markets,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 212-240, March.
- Alain P. Chaboud & Benjamin Chiquoine & Erik Hjalmarsson & Mico Loretan, 2007. "Frequency of observation and the estimation of integrated volatility in deep and liquid financial markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 905, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Alain Chaboud & Benjamin Chiquoine & Erik Hjalmarsson & Mico Loretan, 2008. "Frequency of observation and the estimation of integrated volatility in deep and liquid financial markets," BIS Working Papers 249, Bank for International Settlements.
- Chan, Kam Fong & Powell, John G. & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2014. "Currency jumps and crises: Do developed and emerging market currencies jump together?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 132-157.
- Filippou, Ilias & Maurer, Thomas A. & Pezzo, Luca & Taylor, Mark P., 2024.
"Importance of transaction costs for asset allocation in foreign exchange markets,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
- Filippou, Ilias & Maurer, Thomas & Pezzo, Luca & Taylor, Mark, 2024. "Importance of Transaction Costs for Asset Allocation in Foreign Exchange Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 19037, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dungey, Mardi & Matei, Marius & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2020. "Examining stress in Asian currencies: A perspective offered by high frequency financial market data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
- Serdengeçti, Süleyman & Sensoy, Ahmet & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2021.
"Dynamics of return and liquidity (co) jumps in emerging foreign exchange markets,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
- Serdengecti, Suleyman & Sensoy, Ahmet & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2020. "Dynamics of Return and Liquidity (Co)Jumps in Emerging Foreign Exchange Markets," MPRA Paper 105162, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2021.
- Suleyman Serdengeçti & Ahmet Sensoy & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2020. "Dynamics of Return and Liquidity (Co)Jumps in Emerging Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers 2020-006, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
- Deniz Erdemlioglu & Nikola Gradojevic, 2021.
"Heterogeneous investment horizons, risk regimes, and realized jumps,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 617-643, January.
- Deniz Erdemlioglu & Nikola Gradojevic, 2020. "Heterogeneous investment horizons, risk regimes, and realized jumps," Post-Print hal-02995997, HAL.
- Syrstad, Olav & Viswanath-Natraj, Ganesh, 2022. "Price-setting in the foreign exchange swap market: Evidence from order flow," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 119-142.
- Ülkü, Numan & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Identifying the interaction between stock market returns and trading flows of investor types: Looking into the day using daily data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2733-2749.
- repec:gla:glaewp:2023-03 is not listed on IDEAS
- Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2007.
"Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Markets,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1975-2019, November.
- Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2006. "Informed and strategic order flow in the bond markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 874, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Wang, Yuming & Ma, Jinpeng, 2014. "Excess volatility and the cross-section of stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-16.
- Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2015.
"Structural Vector Autoregressions with Heteroskedasticity: A Comparison of Different Volatility Models,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
1464, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2015. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A comparison of different volatility models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-015, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
- Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei Netšunajev, 2015. "Structural Vector Autoregressions with Heteroskedasticity - A Comparison of Different Volatility Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 5308, CESifo.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Lafarguette, Romain & Mehl, Arnaud, 2019.
"Fast trading and the virtue of entropy: evidence from the foreign exchange market,"
Working Paper Series
2300, European Central Bank.
- Corsetti, G. & Lafarguette, R. & Mehl, A., 2019. "Fast Trading and the Virtue of Entropy: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1970, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Romain Lafarguette & Arnaud Mehl, 2019. "Fast Trading and the Virtue of Entropy: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Discussion Papers 1914, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
- Alain P. Chaboud & Benjamin Chiquoine & Erik Hjalmarsson & Clara Vega, 2014.
"Rise of the Machines: Algorithmic Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2045-2084, October.
- Alain P. Chaboud & Benjamin Chiquoine & Erik Hjalmarsson & Clara Vega, 2009. "Rise of the machines: algorithmic trading in the foreign exchange market," International Finance Discussion Papers 980, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Tim Bollerslev & Benjamin Hood & John Huss & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2018.
"Risk Everywhere: Modeling and Managing Volatility,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2729-2773.
- Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Bollerslev, Tim & Hood, Benjamin & Huss, John, 2018. "Risk Everywhere: Modeling and Managing Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 12687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2013.
"Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps,"
Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 16, pages 373-427,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sebastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2012. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps," Working Papers 2012-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017.
"Do Currency Markets Absorb News Quickly?,"
World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 12, pages 477-505,
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Evans, Martin D.D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2005. "Do currency markets absorb news quickly?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 197-217, March.
- Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Do Currency Markets Absorb News Quickly?," NBER Working Papers 11041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
More about this item
Keywords
; ; ; ; ; ;JEL classification:
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ETS-2025-09-08 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-RMG-2025-09-08 (Risk Management)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2025_13.rdf. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Giorgio Ricchiuti (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/defirit.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.