Detecting Crowded Trades in Currency Funds
The financial crisis of 2008 highlights the importance of detecting crowded trades due to the risks they pose to the stability of the financial system and to the global economy. However, there is a perception that crowded trades are difficult to identify. To date, no single measure to capture the crowdedness of a trade or a trading style has developed. We propose a methodology to measure crowded trades and apply it to professional currency managers. Our results suggest that carry became a crowded trading strategy towards the end of Q1 2008, shortly before a massive liquidation of carry trades. The timing suggests a possible adverse relationship between our measure of style crowdedness and the future performance of the trading style. Crowdedness in the trend following and value strategies confirm this hypothesis. We apply our approach to currencies but the methodology is general and could be used to measure the popularity or crowdedness of any trade with an identifiable time series return. Our methodology may offer useful insights regarding the popularity of certain trades - in currencies, gold, or other assets - among hedge funds. Further research in this area might be very relevant for investors, managers and regulators.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as "Detecting Crowded Trades in Currency Funds," Financial Analysts Journal , Jan./Feb. 2011, pp. 26- 39. (with Momtchil Pojarliev)|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lasse Pedersen, 2009.
"When Everyone Runs for the Exit,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 177-199, December.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Gabriele Galati & Alexandra Heath & Patrick McGuire, 2007. "Evidence of carry trade activity," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
- Evans, Martin D. & Lyons, Richard K., 1999.
"Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series
qt0dh1c16w, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin D. D. Evans and Richard K. Lyons., 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-288, University of California at Berkeley.
- Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert N McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2009. "Dollar appreciation in 2008: safe haven, carry trades, dollar shortage and overhedging," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
- Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2008. "Institutional Portfolio Flows and International Investments," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 937-971, April.
- Momtchil Pojarliev & Richard M. Levich, 2008.
"Trades of the Living Dead: Style Differences, Style Persistence and Performance of Currency Fund Managers,"
NBER Working Papers
14355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pojarliev, Momtchil & Levich, Richard M., 2010. "Trades of the living dead: Style differences, style persistence and performance of currency fund managers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1752-1775, December.
- Momtchil Pojarliev & Richard M. Levich, 2007. "Do Professional Currency Managers Beat the Benchmark?," NBER Working Papers 13714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2008.
"Carry Trades and Currency Crashes,"
NBER Working Papers
14473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2005. "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1535-1566, 06.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15698. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.