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Systematic risk under extremely adverse market condition

Author

Listed:
  • Maarten van Oordt
  • Chen Zhou

Abstract

Extreme losses are the major concern in risk management. The dependence between financial assets and the market portfolio changes under extremely adverse market conditions. We develop a measure of systematic tail risk, the tail regression beta , defined by an asset's sensitivity to large negative market shocks, and establish the estimation methodology. We compare it to regular systematic risk measures: the market beta and the downside beta. Furthermore, the tail regression beta is a useful instrument in both portfolio risk management and systemic risk management. We demonstrate its applications in analyzing Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR).

Suggested Citation

  • Maarten van Oordt & Chen Zhou, 2011. "Systematic risk under extremely adverse market condition," DNB Working Papers 281, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 130-168.
    2. Galagedera, Don U.A., 2007. "An alternative perspective on the relationship between downside beta and CAPM beta," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 4-19, March.
    3. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    4. Zhou, Chen, 2010. "Dependence structure of risk factors and diversification effects," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 531-540, June.
    5. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731.
    6. Jansen, Dennis W & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 18-24, February.
    7. S. T. M. Straetmans & W. F. C. Verschoor & C. C. P. Wolff, 2008. "Extreme US stock market fluctuations in the wake of 9|11," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 17-42.
    8. Christian S. Pedersen & Soosung Hwang, 2007. "Does downside beta matter in asset pricing?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 961-978.
    9. Ser-Huang Poon, 2004. "Extreme Value Dependence in Financial Markets: Diagnostics, Models, and Financial Implications," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 581-610.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Castro, Carlos & Ferrari, Stijn, 2014. "Measuring and testing for the systemically important financial institutions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-14.
    2. López-Espinosa, Germán & Moreno, Antonio & Rubia, Antonio & Valderrama, Laura, 2012. "Short-term wholesale funding and systemic risk: A global CoVaR approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3150-3162.
    3. Maarten van Oordt & Chen Zhou, 2015. "Systemic risk of European banks: Regulators and markets," DNB Working Papers 478, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Liu, Xiaochun, 2013. "Systemic Risk of Commercial Banks: A Markov-Switching Quantile Autoregression Approach," MPRA Paper 55801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Maarten van Oordt & Chen Zhou, 2014. "Systemic risk and bank business models," DNB Working Papers 442, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tail regression beta; downside risk; Extreme Value Theory; tail dependence; risk management;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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