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Systematic risk under extremely adverse market condition

  • Maarten van Oordt
  • Chen Zhou

Extreme losses are the major concern in risk management. The dependence between financial assets and the market portfolio changes under extremely adverse market conditions. We develop a measure of systematic tail risk, the tail regression beta , defined by an asset's sensitivity to large negative market shocks, and establish the estimation methodology. We compare it to regular systematic risk measures: the market beta and the downside beta. Furthermore, the tail regression beta is a useful instrument in both portfolio risk management and systemic risk management. We demonstrate its applications in analyzing Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR).

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Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 281.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
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Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:281
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Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/

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  1. Galagedera, Don U.A., 2007. "An alternative perspective on the relationship between downside beta and CAPM beta," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 4-19, March.
  2. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731.
  3. Christian S. Pedersen & Soosung Hwang, 2007. "Does downside beta matter in asset pricing?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 961-978.
  4. Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 130-168.
  5. Ser-Huang Poon, 2004. "Extreme Value Dependence in Financial Markets: Diagnostics, Models, and Financial Implications," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 581-610.
  6. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
  7. Jansen, Dennis W & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "On the Frequency of Large Stock Returns: Putting Booms and Busts into Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 18-24, February.
  8. Zhou, Chen, 2010. "Dependence structure of risk factors and diversification effects," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 531-540, June.
  9. S. T. M. Straetmans & W. F. C. Verschoor & C. C. P. Wolff, 2008. "Extreme US stock market fluctuations in the wake of 9|11," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 17-42.
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