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Conditional Downside Risk and the CAPM

Author

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  • Post, G.T.
  • van Vliet, P.

Abstract

The mean-semivariance CAPM strongly outperforms the traditional mean-variance CAPM in terms of its ability to explain the cross-section of US stock returns. If regular beta is replaced by downside beta, the traditional risk-return relationship is restored. The downside betas of low-beta stocks are substantially higher than the regular betas, while high-beta stocks involve less systematic downside risk than suggested by their regular betas. This pattern is especially pronounced during bad states-of-the-world, when the market risk premium is high. In sum, our results provide evidence in favor of market portfolio efficiency, provided we account for conditional downside risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Post, G.T. & van Vliet, P., 2004. "Conditional Downside Risk and the CAPM," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2004-048-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:1425
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Post, Thierry & van Vliet, Pim, 2006. "Downside risk and asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 823-849, March.
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    5. Hogan, William W. & Warren, James M., 1974. "Toward the Development of an Equilibrium Capital-Market Model Based on Semivariance," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, January.
    6. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Sheridan Titman, 2001. "Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 699-720, April.
    7. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1976. "Skewness Preference and the Valuation of Risk Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1085-1100, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Boubaker, Heni & Sghaier, Nadia, 2013. "Portfolio optimization in the presence of dependent financial returns with long memory: A copula based approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 361-377.
    2. Olmo, J., 2007. "An asset pricing model for mean-variance-downside-risk averse investors," Working Papers 07/01, Department of Economics, City University London.
    3. Richard D. F. Harris & Xuguang Li & Fang Qiao, 2019. "Option‐implied betas and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 94-108, January.
    4. Li Cai & Jinhua Cui & Hoje Jo, 2016. "Corporate Environmental Responsibility and Firm Risk," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 563-594, December.
    5. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2012. "International diversification: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 871-885.
    6. Ayub, Usman & Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali & Abbas, Qaisar, 2015. "Robust analysis for downside risk in portfolio management for a volatile stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 86-96.
    7. Fong, Wai Mun & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Wong, Wing Keung, 2008. "Stochastic dominance and behavior towards risk: The market for Internet stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 194-208, October.
    8. Bilbao-Terol, Amelia & Arenas-Parra, Mar & Cañal-Fernández, Verónica, 2016. "A model based on Copula Theory for sustainable and social responsible investments," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 55-76.
    9. Chollete, Loran & de la Pena , Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2009. "International Diversification: An Extreme Value Approach," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/26, University of Stavanger.
    10. Miralles Marcelo, José Luis & Miralles Quirós, María Del Mar & Miralles Quirós, José Luis., 2007. "Análisis Media-semivarianza: Una Aplicación A Las Primas De Riesgo En El Mercado De Valores Español/Mean-semivariance Analysis: An Application To Risk Premiums In The Spanish Stock Market," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 25, pages 199-214, Abril.
    11. Ali, Heba, 2019. "Does downside risk matter more in asset pricing? Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 154-174.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CAPM; Downside risk; asymmetry; conditional downside risk; lower partial moments; non-linear kernel; semi-variance;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics

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