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The Inevitability of Marketwide Underpricing of Mortgage Default Risk

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  • Andrey Pavlov
  • Susan M. Wachter

Abstract

Lenders are frequently accused of mispricing the put option embedded in nonrecourse lending. Prior research shows one lender's incentives to underprice. Here, we identify the conditions for a marketwide underpricing equilibrium. We demonstrate that, in a market with many players, given sufficient time, a race to the bottom and marketwide mispricing are inevitable. Underpricing occurs because bank managers and shareholders exploit mispriced deposit insurance. We show that the probability of the underpricing equilibrium increases with time since the previous market crash and that the more volatile the underlying asset market, the more likely it is subject to underpricing. Copyright 2006 American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

Suggested Citation

  • Andrey Pavlov & Susan M. Wachter, 2006. "The Inevitability of Marketwide Underpricing of Mortgage Default Risk," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(4), pages 479-496, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:34:y:2006:i:4:p:479-496
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    Cited by:

    1. Michiel van Leuvensteijn & Christoffer Kok Sørensen & Jacob A. Bikker & Adrian A.R.J.M. van Rixtel, 2013. "Impact of bank competition on the interest rate pass-through in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(11), pages 1359-1380, April.
    2. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2012. "International diversification: An extreme value approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 871-885.
    3. Susan M. Wachter, 1975. "Comment on "Housing Policy, Mortgage Policy, and the Federal Housing Administration"," NBER Chapters,in: Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk, pages 125-130 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Christopoulos, Andreas D., 2017. "The composition of CMBS risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 215-239.
    5. Chollete, Loran & Jaffee, Dwight, 2009. "Economic Implications of Extreme and Rare Events," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/32, University of Stavanger.
    6. Chollete, Lorán & de la Peña, Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2011. "International diversification: A copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 403-417, February.
    7. Andrey Pavlov & Eva Steiner & Susan Wachter, 2015. "Macroeconomic Risk Factors and the Role of Mispriced Credit in the Returns from International Real Estate Securities," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 241-270, March.
    8. Chollete, Loran & Pena, Victor de la & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2009. "International Diversification: A Copula Approach," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/27, University of Stavanger.
    9. Kazumasa Iwata, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy in Japan," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 445-461.
    10. Chollete, Loran & de la Pena , Victor & Lu, Ching-Chih, 2009. "International Diversification: An Extreme Value Approach," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/26, University of Stavanger.
    11. John V. Duca & Lilit Popoyan & Susan M. Wachter, 2016. "Real Estate and the Great Crisis: Lessons for Macro-Prudential Policy," LEM Papers Series 2016/30, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    12. Andrey Pavlov & Susan Wachter, 2009. "Mortgage Put Options and Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 89-103, January.
    13. Glaeser, Edward L. & Nathanson, Charles G., 2015. "Housing Bubbles," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier.
    14. Marcel Arsenault & Jim Clayton & Liang Peng, 2013. "Mortgage Fund Flows, Capital Appreciation, and Real Estate Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 243-265, August.
    15. Levitin, Adam & Wachter, Susan, 2012. "Explaining the Housing Bubble," MPRA Paper 41920, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Chollete, Lorán, 2008. "The Propagation of Financial Extremes: An Application to Subprime Market Spillovers," Discussion Papers 2008/2, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.

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