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Dynamic relationship between Turkey and European countries during the global financial crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Sensoy, Ahmet
  • Soytas, Ugur
  • Yildirim, Irem
  • Hacihasanoglu, Erk

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between time-varying risk perceptions of investors towards major European countries and Turkey. In that manner, we first obtain the dynamic conditional correlations between the credit default spreads (CDSs) of Turkey and 13 European countries from September 2004 to April 2013. Next, we endogenously detect the shifts in these dynamic correlation levels using a penalized contrast methodology. Accordingly, we find positive level shifts in all correlations following the US crisis. The upward trend in all CDS correlations holds during the eurozone debt crisis, but positive changes in correlations are not flagged as level shifts by the model, except in a few cases. The results suggest that Turkey is not immune to global financial conditions and there is integration between Turkey and the major European economies in terms of risk perception after the global financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Sensoy, Ahmet & Soytas, Ugur & Yildirim, Irem & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "Dynamic relationship between Turkey and European countries during the global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 290-298.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:290-298
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.04.024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1999. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-3.
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    4. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
    5. Gian Piero Aielli, 2013. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: On Properties and Estimation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 282-299, July.
    6. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
    7. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Padhi, Puja, 2012. "Emerging markets and financial crises: Regional, global or isolated shocks?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 24-38.
    8. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    9. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Samitas, Aristeidis, 2011. "Equity market integration in emerging Balkan markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 296-307, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nazlioglu, Saban & Gormus, N. Alper & Soytas, Uğur, 2016. "Oil prices and real estate investment trusts (REITs): Gradual-shift causality and volatility transmission analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 168-175.
    2. Yilmaz, Mustafa K. & Sensoy, Ahmet & Ozturk, Kevser & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2015. "Cross-sectoral interactions in Islamic equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-20.
    3. repec:eee:jocoma:v:7:y:2017:i:c:p:41-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Shen, Pei-Long & Li, Wen & Wang, Xiao-Ting & Su, Chi-Wei, 2015. "Contagion effect of the European financial crisis on China's stock markets: Interdependence and pure contagion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 193-199.
    5. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Mensi, Walid, 2017. "Interdependence and contagion among industry-level US credit markets: An application of wavelet and VMD based copula approaches," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 310-324.
    6. Noureddine BENLAGHA & Slim MSEDDI, 2016. "The Macroeconomic And Financial Impacts Of European Crisis On Saudi Arabia," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 16(1).
    7. repec:gam:jjrfmx:v:11:y:2018:i:2:p:16-:d:138939 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2017. "Sovereign default risk linkage: Implication for portfolio diversification," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-16.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurozone crisis; Sub-prime crisis; CDS; Dynamic conditional correlation; Penalized contrast function;

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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