IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dkn/ecomet/fe_2012_03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling the Sovereign Linkages of Key Latin American Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Thuraisamy, Kannan
  • Gannon, Gerard

Abstract

This paper models the cross-market dynamics in an emerging market regional setting using a homogenous set of international sovereign bonds issued by key Latin American economies. We employ Johansen's and a modified three-step procedure, which generates portfolio adjustment weights while accounting for common volatility effects across markets. The bonds are grouped based upon maturities across different markets in the Latin American region. This paper provides insights into the nature of sovereign linkages of key Latin American markets generally, and sovereign international bonds with varying maturities more specifically. The empirical results also highlight the manner in which sovereign linkages evolve in Latin America and the required portfolio adjustments following a credit event in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Thuraisamy, Kannan & Gannon, Gerard, 2012. "Modelling the Sovereign Linkages of Key Latin American Economies," Working Papers fe_2012_03, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:dkn:ecomet:fe_2012_03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2012.08.002
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012. "Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 975-995.
    2. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    3. Batten, Jonathan & Hogan, Warren & Pynnonen, Seppo, 2000. "The dynamics of Australian dollar bonds with different credit qualities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 389-404.
    4. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    5. Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1994. "Common stochastic trends in a system of Eurocurrency rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1047-1061, December.
    6. Mills, Terence C & Mills, Alessandra G, 1991. "The International Transmission of Bond Market Movements," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 273-281, July.
    7. Kim, Suk-Joong & Lucey, Brian M. & Wu, Eliza, 2006. "Dynamics of bond market integration between established and accession European Union countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 41-56, February.
    8. de Jong, Frank & de Roon, Frans A., 2005. "Time-varying market integration and expected returns in emerging markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 583-613, December.
    9. Bredin, Don & Muckley, Cal, 2011. "An emerging equilibrium in the EU emissions trading scheme," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 353-362, March.
    10. Rune Höglund & Ralf Östermark, 2003. "Size and power of some cointegration tests under structural breaks and heteroskedastic noise," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-22, January.
    11. Yang, Jian, 2005. "International bond market linkages: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 39-54, January.
    12. Pan, Ming-Shiun & Liu, Y. Angela & Roth, Herbert J., 1999. "Common stochastic trends and volatility in Asian-Pacific equity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 161-172.
    13. Aggarwal, Raj & Muckley, Cal B., 2010. "Assessing co-ordinated Asian exchange rate regimes: Proposal for a possible move towards a common currency," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 149-165, April.
    14. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 2002. "Dating the integration of world equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 203-247, August.
    15. Ilmanen, Antti, 1995. " Time-Varying Expected Returns in International Bond Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 481-506, June.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    17. Barr, David G. & Priestley, Richard, 2004. "Expected returns, risk and the integration of international bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 71-97, February.
    18. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Hogan, Ked, 2007. "Characterizing World Market Integration through Time," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(04), pages 915-940, December.
    19. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    20. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2004. "Modelling the linkages between the Australian and G7 stock markets: common stochastic trends and regime shifts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 991-1004.
    21. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Tse, Yiuman, 1996. "Cointegration tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 401-410, August.
    22. Gannon, Gerard L., 1996. "First and second order inefficiency in Australasian currency markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 315-327, July.
    23. Diaz Weigel, Diana & Gemmill, Gordon, 2006. "What drives credit risk in emerging markets? The roles of country fundamentals and market co-movements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 476-502, April.
    24. Chambet, Anthony & Gibson, Rajna, 2008. "Financial integration, economic instability and trade structure in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 654-675, June.
    25. Sutton, Gregory D., 2000. "Is there excess comovement of bond yields between countries?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 363-376, June.
    26. Alexakis, Panayotis & Apergis, Nicholas, 1996. "ARCH effects and cointegration: Is the foreign exchange market efficient?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 687-697, May.
    27. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gannon, Gerard L. & Thuraisamy, Kannan S., 2017. "Sovereign risk and the impact of crisis: Evidence from Latin AmericaAuthor-Name: Batten, Jonathan A," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 328-350.
    2. Thuraisamy, Kannan Sivananthan, 2014. "Intra-market sovereign linkages of key Latin American markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 140-160.
    3. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2017. "Sovereign default risk linkage: Implication for portfolio diversification," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-16.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Common long-run components; Sovereign linkages; Latin America; Sovereign international bonds; Portfolio adjustment weight.;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dkn:ecomet:fe_2012_03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Xueli Tang). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sedeaau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.