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Impacts of the financial crisis on eurozone sovereign CDS spreads

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  • Gündüz, Yalin
  • Kaya, Orcun

Abstract

We study the variation of sovereign credit default swaps (CDSs) of eurozone countries, their persistence and co-movements, with particular attention given to the impact of the financial crisis. Specifically, using a dual fractional integration model, we test the evidence of long memory for CDSs of ten eurozone countries. Our analysis reveals that price discovery processes satisfy the minimum requirements for a weak form of efficiency for sovereign CDS markets, even during the crisis. In contrast, we document the spreading out of persistent CDS uncertainty among the peripheral economies with its outbreak. We provide evidence that CDS uncertainty has implications for the pricing of sovereign risk including that of core countries in the crisis period. Finally, we present the potential spillover effects utilizing a dynamic conditional correlation model and show that, with the collapse of Lehman, the probability of a contagion increased across all countries and became more explicit for peripheral economies as the sovereign crisis took on a new dimension.

Suggested Citation

  • Gündüz, Yalin & Kaya, Orcun, 2014. "Impacts of the financial crisis on eurozone sovereign CDS spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 425-442.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:49:y:2014:i:pb:p:425-442
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.03.013
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    3. Mollah, Sabur & Quoreshi, A.M.M. Shahiduzzaman & Zafirov, Goran, 2016. "Equity market contagion during global financial and Eurozone crises: Evidence from a dynamic correlation analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 151-167.
    4. Fredrik N. G. Andersson & Katarzyna Burzynska & Sonja Opper, 2016. "Lending for growth? A Granger causality analysis of China’s finance–growth nexus," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 897-920, November.
    5. Timo Bettendorf, 2019. "Spillover effects of credit default risk in the euro area and the effects on the Euro: A GVAR approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 296-312, January.
    6. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2017. "Sovereign default risk linkage: Implication for portfolio diversification," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-16.
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    9. Chen, Wang & Ho, Kung-Cheng & Yang, Lu, 2020. "Network structures and idiosyncratic contagion in the European sovereign credit default swap market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos & Stavros E. Arvanitis & Dimitris M. Terzakis, 2017. "The risk of the sovereign debt default: the Eurozone crisis 2008–2013," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(38), pages 3782-3796, August.
    11. Pagano, Michael S. & Sedunov, John, 2016. "A comprehensive approach to measuring the relation between systemic risk exposure and sovereign debt," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 62-78.
    12. Sedunov, John, 2021. "Federal reserve intervention and systemic risk during financial crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swaps; Long memory; Sovereign risk; Eurozone economies; FIGARCH; Dynamic conditional correlation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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