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Long Memory and the Term Structure of Risk

  • Peter C. Schotman
  • Rolf Tschernig
  • Jan Budek

This paper explores the implications of asset return predictability for long-term portfolio choice when return-forecasting variables are fractionally integrated. For important predictor variables, like the dividend-price ratio, and nominal and real interest rates, we estimate orders of integration around 0.8. This leads to substantial increases of the estimated long-term risk of stocks, bonds, and cash compared to estimates obtained from a stationary VAR. Results are sensitive to the inclusion of the short-term nominal interest rate in the prediction equation of excess stock returns. Jointly with the dividend-price ratio it has significant predictive power, but contrary to the dividend-price ratio the nominal interest rate does not induce mitigating effects through mean reversion. Copyright The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org., Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbn010
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Article provided by Society for Financial Econometrics in its journal Journal of Financial Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (Fall)
Pages: 459-495

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Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:6:y:2008:i:4:p:459-495
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