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Lending for Growth? A Granger Causality Analysis of China's Finance-Growth Nexus

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Abstract

China’s banking sector is dominated by four distinct organizational forms: policy banks (PBs), state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs), joint stock commercial banks (JSCBs), and rural credit cooperatives (RCCs). Economic analyses have especially focused on the development of bank efficiency and profitability over time. The equally important question - which of China’s banking institutions promote economic growth - has not been explored. Our study uses a novel data set covering the period 1997 to 2008 and employ Granger causality tests to estimate the finance-growth nexus of each of these bank types. Our results show that SOCBs and RCCs do not Granger-cause GDP growth and that SOCBs even have a negative effect on manufacturing growth. By contrast, PBs and JSCBs promote economic growth.

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  • Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Burzynska, Katarzyna & Opper, Sonja, 2014. "Lending for Growth? A Granger Causality Analysis of China's Finance-Growth Nexus," Knut Wicksell Working Paper Series 2014/6, Lund University, Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:luwick:2014_006
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    Keywords

    China; Banking sector; Economic growth; Government-owned banks;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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