IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Short-run Lats Rate Movements: Impact of Foreign Currency Shocks via Trade and Financial Markets”

  • Martins Kazaks

    (School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University College London and Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Duo Qin

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

Registered author(s):

This paper investigates the short-run dynamic impact of foreign currency shocks on the deviations of Latvian lats vis-à-vis US dollar market spot rate from the parity set via lats’ peg to SDR for the period from 1994 to 2000. The analysis is based on the standard theoretical model of dynamic cost adjustment, from which empirical models of the autoregressive distributed-lags form are derived. Reduction of several versions of such general models leads to a number of parsimonious and data congruent models. Our main findings from the modelling experiment are: Cross-currency shocks produce extensive impact on the net rate of lats, especially those shocks from the neighbouring transition economies, such as Estonia and Lithuania; These shocks may not be original, and may well act as transmission ports of other foreign currency shocks; The Russian crisis of August 1998 has exerted massive devaluation pressure on lats; The shocks are found to be transmittable via either trade and financial linkages, with the financial channel being the most contagious; Model configurations are found, however, neither unique nor definitely invariant, suggesting that it might be necessary to maintain several models in practice to fulfil different purposes in policy analyses and economic forecasting.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.ssees.ucl.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/wp26.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by CENTRE FOR THE STUDY OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CHANGE IN EUROPE,School of Slavonic and East European Studies,University College London (SSEES,UCL) in its series Working Papers with number 26 Key words: exchange rate determination, currency shock transmission, trade linkages, financial market linkages, capital mobility, transition. JEL classification: E44, E58, F31, F41.

as
in new window

Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:see:wpaper:26
Contact details of provider: Postal: Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT
Phone: +44-20-7679 8519
Fax: +44-20-7679 8777
Web page: http://www.ssees.ucl.ac.uk/csesce.htm
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June.
  2. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, March.
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Pietro Garibaldi & Nada Mora & Ratna Sahay & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2001. "What Moves Capital to Transition Economies?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(4), pages 6.
  5. Edison, Hali & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2001. "Stopping hot money," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 533-553, December.
  6. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 1999. "Financial Contagion under Different Exchange Rate Regimes," MNB Working Papers 1999/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:see:wpaper:26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gerry, Christopher J.)

The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Gerry, Christopher J. to update the entry or send us the correct address

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.