Exchange rate regime transitions
The “hollowing-out,” or “two poles” hypothesis is tested in the context of a Markov chain model of exchange rate transitions. In particular, two versions of the hypothesis—that hard pegs are an absorbing state, or that fixes and floats form a closed set, with no transitions to intermediate regimes—are tested using two alternative classifications of regimes. While there is some support for the lack of exits from hard pegs (i.e., that they are an absorbing state), the data generally indicate that the intermediate cases will continue to constitute a sizable proportion of actual exchange rate regimes.
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Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
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NBER Working Papers
5874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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"The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
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- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eichengreen, B. & Masson, P. & Savastano, M. & Sharma, S., 1999. "Transition Strategies and Nominal Anchors on the Road to Greater Exchange-Rate Flexibility," Princeton Essays in International Economics 213, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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