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Un modèle NATREX synthétique pour une petite économie « développée » ouverte contrainte sur les marchés internationaux de capitaux

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  • Hoarau, Jean-François

    (Université de la Réunion)

Abstract

This article presents a synthetic model of the « NATural Real EXchange rate » approach for a small open « developed » economy constrained by an imperfect international capital mobility. In accordance with the conventional NATREX wisdom, the determination of the equilibrium real exchange rate obviously depends on the time horizon considered. In the medium run, the equilibrium value results from both the real fundamentals (global productivity, foreign demand, terms of trade, real interest rate, time preference and government spending) and the predetermined variables (productive capital and external debt). In the long run, the stock-flow dynamics linked to the endogenous adjustments of the predetermined variables come into action. Thereafter, the equilibrium real exchange rate is only impacted by the real fundamentals. Moreover, the model puts forward the crucial role of some structural parameters, namely the wealth effect, the import elasticity of national investment and the degree of international capital mobility. Résumé - L’objectif de cet article est de présenter un modèle synthétique de taux de change réel d’équilibre de type « NATural Real EXchange rate » pour une petite économie « développée » et ouverte mais confrontée à des marchés de capitaux imparfaits. Conformément à la tradition NATREX, le taux de change réel d’équilibre dépend de l’horizon temporel considéré. À moyen terme, il est déterminé, dans le cadre d’un équilibre de flux, conjointement par un ensemble de fondamentaux réels (la productivité globale, la demande étrangère, les termes de l’échange, le taux d’intérêt réel, la préférence pour le présent et les dépenses publiques) et de variables prédéterminées (le capital productif et la dette externe). À long terme, par contre, des ajustements de nature stock-flux, liés aux mouvements endogènes des variables prédéterminées, entrent en jeu. Le taux de change réel d’équilibre ne dépend plus alors que des seuls fondamentaux réels. Par ailleurs, cette présentation fait ressortir l’importance de certains paramètres structurels du modèle, à savoir l’effet richesse, l’élasticité des importations par rapport à l’investissement national et le degré de mobilité internationale des capitaux.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoarau, Jean-François, 2013. "Un modèle NATREX synthétique pour une petite économie « développée » ouverte contrainte sur les marchés internationaux de capitaux," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(4), pages 259-303, Décembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0093
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    1. Cécile Couharde & Serge Rey & Audrey Sallenave, 2016. "External debt and real exchange rates’ adjustment in the euro area: new evidence from a nonlinear NATREX model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(11), pages 966-986, March.
    2. Cécile Couharde & Serge Rey & Audrey Sallenave, 2016. "External debt and real exchange rates’ adjustment in the euro area: new evidence from a nonlinear NATREX model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(11), pages 966-986, March.

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