IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_2290.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Two-Country NATREX Model for the Euro/Dollar

Author

Listed:
  • Marianna Belloc
  • Daniela Federici

Abstract

This paper develops a NATREX (NATural Real EXchange rate) model for two large economies, the Eurozone and the United States, which are fully specified and allowed to interact. After description of the theoretical framework grounding on dynamic disequilibrium modelling approach in continuous time, we implement empirical analysis. First, we estimate the model in its structural form as a simultaneous nonlinear differential equation system for the 1975-2003 period. Second, we simulate the Euro/USD NATREX series in- and out-of-sample by using parameters estimates. The simulated equilibrium real exchange rate enables us to determine a benchmark against which the dynamics of the actual real exchange rate can be measured.

Suggested Citation

  • Marianna Belloc & Daniela Federici, 2008. "A Two-Country NATREX Model for the Euro/Dollar," CESifo Working Paper Series 2290, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2290
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp2290.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. anonymous, 1995. "Does the bouncing ball lead to economic growth?," Regional Update, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jul, pages 1-2,4-6.
    2. Jeffrey Sachs & Daniel Cohen, 1982. "LDC Borrowing with Default Risk," NBER Working Papers 0925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    4. Daniela Federici & Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2002. "Endogenous Growth in an Open Economy and the Real Exchange Rate," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 499-518, December.
    5. Richard N. Cooper & Jeffrey Sachs, 1984. "Borrowing Abroad: The Debtor's Perspective," NBER Working Papers 1427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. repec:bla:intfin:v:3:y:2000:i:3:p:329-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely To Be?," NBER Working Papers 11541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Paul De Grauwe, 2014. "Exchange Rates in Search of Fundamentals: The Case of the Euro–Dollar Rate," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 4, pages 121-158, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Bergstrom, A.R., 1984. "Continuous time stochastic models and issues of aggregation over time," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1145-1212, Elsevier.
    10. Romain Duval, 2002. "What Do We Know About Long–run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates? PPPs vs Macroeconomic Approaches," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 382-403, December.
    11. Giancarlo Gandolfo & Alberto Felettigh, 1998. "The NATREX: an Alternative Approach Theory and Empirical Verifications," Working Papers 52, Sapienza University of Rome, CIDEI.
    12. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1996. "Budgetary Policies, Foreign Indebtedness, the Stock Market, and Economic Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 382-396, July.
    14. Johan L. Verrue & Jan Colpaert, 1998. "A dynamic model of the real Belgian franc," Working Papers 47, Sapienza University of Rome, CIDEI.
    15. Carsten Detken & Alistair Dieppe & Jérôme Henry & Frank Smets & Carmen Marin, 2002. "Determinants of the Effective Real Exchange Rate of the Synthetic Euro: Alternative Methodological Approaches," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 404-436, December.
    16. Stein L., 2001. "The Equilibrium Value of The Euro/$ US Exchange Rate: An Evaluation of Research," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 73-108, January -.
    17. Wymer, C R, 1972. "Econometric Estimation of Stochastic Differential Equation Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 565-577, May.
    18. Wymer, Clifford R., 1997. "Structural Nonlinear Continuous-Time Models In Econometrics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 518-548, June.
    19. Fleming, Wendell H. & Stein, Jerome L., 2004. "Stochastic optimal control, international finance and debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 979-996, May.
    20. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    21. Jerome L. Stein, 2001. "The Equilibrium Value of the Euro/$ US Exchange Rate: An Evaluation of Research," CESifo Working Paper Series 525, CESifo.
    22. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Non-linearities in the relation between the exchange rate and its fundamentals," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 1-21.
    23. Xavier Sala-I-Martin, 1997. "Transfers, Social Safety Nets, and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 81-102, March.
    24. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    25. Vincent Koen & Laurence Boone & Alain de Serres & Nicola Fuchs, 2001. "Tracking the Euro," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 298, OECD Publishing.
    26. Cohen, Daniel & Loisel, Olivier, 2001. "Why was the euro weak? Markets and policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 988-994, May.
    27. Jerome L. Stein & Giovanna Paladino, 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignments and Crises," CESifo Working Paper Series 205, CESifo.
    28. Mr. Jerome L. Stein, 1995. "The Fundamental Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate of the U. S. Dollar Relative to Other G-7 Currencies," IMF Working Papers 1995/081, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Stein, Jerome L., 1990. "The real exchange rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 1045-1078, November.
    30. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 1999. "Stability, Asymmetry, and Discontinuity: The Launch of European Monetary Union," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 295-372.
    31. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2005. "The Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals in a Complex World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 549-575, August.
    32. Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2002. "Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Ettore F. Infante & Jerome L. Stein, 1973. "Optimal Growth with Robust Feedback Control," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 40(1), pages 47-60.
    34. Jerome L. Stein, 1995. "The Fundamental Determinants of the real Exchange Rate of the US Dollar Relative to the G7," Working Papers 95-8, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    35. Eleanor Wiske Dillon & Linda S. Goldberg, 2007. "Why a dollar depreciation may not close the U.S. trade deficit," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 13(Jun).
    36. Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Nadeem Ul Haque & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1990. "Growth, External Debt, and Sovereign Risk in a Small Open Economy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 388-417, June.
    37. Vivien J. Lewis, 2007. "Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(2), pages 324-348, July.
    38. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? If Not, How Costly Is Adjustment Likely to Be?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 211-288.
    39. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "The Dazzling Dollar," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(1), pages 199-217.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-05, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    2. Patrik Abrahámek, 2017. "Importance of the Debt-Adjusted Real Exchange Rate in the Eurozone and V4," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(4), pages 1325-1337.
    3. Nikolaos Giannellis & Minoas Koukouritakis, 2011. "Behavioural equilibrium exchange rate and total misalignment: evidence from the euro exchange rate," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(4), pages 555-578, November.
    4. Hoarau, Jean-François, 2013. "Un modèle NATREX synthétique pour une petite économie « développée » ouverte contrainte sur les marchés internationaux de capitaux," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(4), pages 259-303, Décembre.
    5. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-05, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2015. "The Tobin tax in a continuous-time non-linear dynamic model of the exchange rate," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 39(6), pages 1629-1643.
    7. Federici, Daniela & Gandolfo, Giancarlo, 2012. "The Euro/Dollar exchange rate: Chaotic or non-chaotic? A continuous time model with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 670-681.
    8. Vít Posta, 2011. "The Misalignment of the Real Exchange Rate with the Fundamentals: Evidence from the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 26.
    9. Daniela Federici & Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2011. "The Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate: Chaotic or Non-Chaotic?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3420, CESifo.
    10. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Measuring the dollar–euro permanent equilibrium exchange rate using the unobserved components model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 20-35.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2014-12, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    2. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Measuring the dollar–euro permanent equilibrium exchange rate using the unobserved components model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 20-35.
    3. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-05, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. Federici, Daniela & Gandolfo, Giancarlo, 2012. "The Euro/Dollar exchange rate: Chaotic or non-chaotic? A continuous time model with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 670-681.
    5. Reza Siregar, 2011. "The Concepts of Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Survey of Literature," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp81, April.
    6. Daniela Federici & Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2002. "Endogenous Growth in an Open Economy and the Real Exchange Rate," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 499-518, December.
    7. Daniela Federici & Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2011. "The Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate: Chaotic or Non-Chaotic?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3420, CESifo.
    8. Serge Rey, 2009. "Des insuffisances de la PPA à l’apport du NATREX : une revue critique des théories du taux de change réel d’équilibre," Working Papers hal-01880363, HAL.
    9. Dreger, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A macroeconometric model for the Euro economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-13.
    10. Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2015. "The Tobin tax in a continuous-time non-linear dynamic model of the exchange rate," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 39(6), pages 1629-1643.
    11. Eicher, Theo S. & Schubert, Stefan F. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2008. "Dynamic effects of terms of trade shocks: The impact on debt and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 876-896, October.
    12. Chung, Keunsuk & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2010. "Foreign debt supply in an imperfect international capital market: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 201-223, March.
    13. Rey, Serge, 2009. "L’apport du NATREX à la modélisation des taux de change d’équilibre : théorie et application au dollar canadien," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(2), pages 131-181, juin.
    14. Serge Rey, 2009. "Des insuffisances de la PPA à l’apport du NATREX : une revue critique des théories du taux de change réel d’équilibre," Working Papers hal-01880363, HAL.
    15. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S. & Page, John & Robinson, Sherman & Thierfelder, Karen, 2008. "Aid, growth, and real exchange rate dynamics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4480, The World Bank.
    16. De Paoli, Biana & Hoggarth, Glenn & Saporta, Victoria, 2006. "Financial Stability Paper No 1: Costs of Sovereign Default," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 1, Bank of England.
    17. Nyambuu, Unurjargal & Semmler, Willi, 2017. "Emerging markets’ resource booms and busts, borrowing risk and regime change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 29-42.
    18. repec:zbw:rwidps:0030 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Kristinn Hermannsson & Patrizio Lecca, 2016. "Human Capital in Economic Development: From Labour Productivity to Macroeconomic Impact," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(1), pages 24-36, March.
    20. Yew-Kwang Ng & Xiaokai Yang, 2005. "Specialization, Information, And Growth: A Sequential Equilibrium Analysis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: An Inframarginal Approach To Trade Theory, chapter 20, pages 447-474, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Albert J.F. Yang & William N. Trumbull & Chin Wei Yang & Bwo‐Nung Huang, 2011. "On The Relationship Between Military Expenditure, Threat, And Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 449-457, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    NATREX; equilibrium exchange rate; Euro; USD; structural approach; continuous time econometrics; misalignment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2290. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.