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Why was the Euro Weak? Markets and Policies

  • Cohen, Daniel
  • Loisel, Olivier

Against all odds, the euro turned out to be a weak currency. We argue that this outcome can readily be explained by the policy mix that was chosen at the onset of the period: tight fiscal policies following the convergence mechanism that was imposed by the Maastricht treaty and loose monetary policy that resulted from the convergence of interest rates to the lower point of the spectrum. We investigate this outcome empirically and show that the euro's weakness can be understood as the result of an excess supply in the zone, which is channelled abroad in the usual 'beggar thy neighbour’ way. We also outline how an optimal policy mix could be set in the future and discuss a suggestion that has been made by Alessandra Casella on the proper way to determine the fiscal deficit of the zone.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2633.

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Date of creation: Dec 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2633
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  1. Cohen, Daniel, 1997. "How Will the Euro behave?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1673, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 1999. "Stability, Asymmetry, and Discontinuity: The Launch of European Monetary Union," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 295-372.
  3. Alessandra Casella, 1999. "Tradable deficit permits:efficient implementation of the Stability Pact in the European Monetary Union," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 321-362, October.
  4. Cohen, D. & Wyplosz, C., 1990. "Price and Trade Effects of Exchange Rates Fluctuations and the Design of Policy Coordination," DELTA Working Papers 90-19, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
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