Why was the euro weak? Markets and policies
Against all odds, the euro turned out to be a weak currency. We argue that this outcome can readily be explained by the policy mix that was chosen at the onset of the period: tight fiscal policies following the convergence mechanism that was imposed by the Maastricht treaty and loose monetary policy that resulted from the convergence of interest rates to the lower point of the spectrum. We investigate this outcome empirically and show that the euro's weakness can be understood as the result of an excess supply in the zone, which is channelled abroad in the usual 'beggar thy neighbour’ way. We also outline how an optimal policy mix could be set in the future and discuss a suggestion that has been made by Alessandra Casella on the proper way to determine the fiscal deficit of the zone.
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Cohen, Daniel, 1997.
"How will the euro behave ?,"
CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange)
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 1999. "Stability, Asymmetry, and Discontinuity: The Launch of European Monetary Union," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 295-372.
- Alessandra Casella, 1999.
"Tradable deficit permits:efficient implementation of the Stability Pact in the European Monetary Union,"
CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 321-362, October.
- Alessandra Casella, 1999. "Tradable Deficit Permits: Efficient Implementation of the Stability Pacin the European Monetary Union," NBER Working Papers 7278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cohen, Daniel & Wyplosz, Charles, 1990.
"Price and Trade Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Design of Policy Coordinaton,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
440, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Cohen, Daniel & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Price and trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations and the design of policy coordination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 331-347, June.
- Cohen, D. & Wyplosz, C., 1990. "Price and Trade Effects of Exchange Rates Fluctuations and the Design of Policy Coordination," DELTA Working Papers 90-19, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Cohen Daniel & Wyplosz Ch., 1990. "Price and trade effects of exchange rates fluctuations and the design of policy coordination," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9010, CEPREMAP.
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