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Why was the euro weak? Markets and policies

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  • Cohen, Daniel
  • Loisel, Olivier

Abstract

Against all odds, the euro turned out to be a weak currency. We argue that this outcome can readily be explained by the policy mix that was chosen at the onset of the period: tight fiscal policies following the convergence mechanism that was imposed by the Maastricht treaty and loose monetary policy that resulted from the convergence of interest rates to the lower point of the spectrum. We investigate this outcome empirically and show that the euro's weakness can be understood as the result of an excess supply in the zone, which is channelled abroad in the usual 'beggar thy neighbour? way. We also outline how an optimal policy mix could be set in the future and discuss a suggestion that has been made by Alessandra Casella on the proper way to determine the fiscal deficit of the zone.
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  • Cohen, Daniel & Loisel, Olivier, 2001. "Why was the euro weak? Markets and policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 988-994, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:45:y:2001:i:4-6:p:988-994
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cohen, Daniel & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Price and trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations and the design of policy coordination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 331-347, June.
    2. Cohen, Daniel, 1997. "How Will the Euro behave?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1673, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 1999. "Stability, Asymmetry, and Discontinuity: The Launch of European Monetary Union," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 295-372.
    4. Alessandra Casella, 1999. "Tradable deficit permits: efficient implementation of the Stability Pact in the European Monetary Union," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 322-361.
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    Cited by:

    1. Belloc, Marianna & Federici, Daniela, 2010. "A two-country NATREX model for the euro/dollar," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 315-335, March.
    2. Gottschalk, Jan & Döpke, Jörg & Kamps, Christophe, 2001. "Sources of Euro Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: What Is Behind the Euro Weakness in 1999-2000?," Kiel Working Papers 1050, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Kari Heimonen, 2006. "Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407.
    4. Kaltenhäuser, Bernd, 2001. "Explaining the Dollar-Euro rate: Do stock market returns mater?," CFS Working Paper Series 2001/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    5. Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2002. "Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kari Heimonen, 2009. "The euro–dollar exchange rate and equity flows," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 202-209, October.
    7. Neaime, Simon & Paschakis, John, 2002. "The future of the dollar-euro exchange rate," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 56-71, May.
    8. Heimonen, Kari, 2009. "The euro-dollar exchange rate and equity flows," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 202-209, October.
    9. Philip Arestis & Andrew Brown & Kostas Mouratidis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2002. "The Euro: Reflections on the first three years," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17.
    10. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Chionis, Dionysios P., 2004. "Foreign exchange market intervention: implications of publicly announced and secret intervention for the euro exchange rate and its volatility," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 661-673, September.
    11. Bas van Aarle & Harry Garretsen & Florence Huart & Bas Van Aarle, 2003. "Transatlantic Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction," CESifo Working Paper Series 1042, CESifo.
    12. Heng Chen & Dietrich K. Fausten & Wing-Keung Wong, 2006. "Evolution Of Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate Before And After The Birth Of Euro And Policy Implications," Monash Economics Working Papers 14/06, Monash University, Department of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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