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Le taux de change réel d'équilibre : une introduction

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  • Hervé Joly
  • Céline Prigent
  • Nicolas Sobczak

Abstract

[fre] Le taux de change réel d'équilibre : une introduction par Hervé Joly, Céline Prigent, Nicolas Sobczak . Cet article présente les deux principales théories du taux de change réel d'équilibre. La première approche repose sur un modèle d'équilibre général intertemporel à deux secteurs; elle définit le taux de change réel comme le prix relatif des biens échangeables par rapport aux biens non-échangeables. Elle est la plus achevée d'un point de vue théorique mais est complexe à mettre en oeuvre empiriquement. La seconde approche est plus "macro-économique". Le change réel y est défini comme un indicateur de compétitivité; son niveau d'équilibre permet d'atteindre l'équilibre externe tout en étant compatible avec l'équilibre interne. Le calcul empirique est plus aisé et s'appuie les mécanismes les plus robustes inscrits dans les modèles macro-économétriques. Ces deux approches présentent des points communs, en particulier une définition intertemporelle de l'équilibre extérieur. Elles paraissent par ailleurs largement complémentaires dans la mesure où elles se réfèrent implicitement à des horizons temporels différents. [eng] The Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate: An Introduction by Hervé Joly, Céline Prigent and Nicolas Sobczak . This article presents the two main real equilibrium exchange rate theories. The first approach is based on a two-sector general equilibrium model. It defines the real exchange rate as the relative price of tradeable goods compared with goods. It is the most complete as a theory, but its empirical application is complicated. The second approach is "macroeconomic". The real exchange rate is defined here as a competitiveness indicator. Its equilibrium level enables equilibrium to be attained whilst remaining compatible with internal equilibrium. The empirical calculation is easier and uses most robust mechanisms in macroeconometric models. These two approaches have certain points in common, notably intertemporal definition of external equilibrium. They moreover appear to be largely complementary insofar as they implicitly to different forecasting periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Hervé Joly & Céline Prigent & Nicolas Sobczak, 1996. "Le taux de change réel d'équilibre : une introduction," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 1-21.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_123_2_5787
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1996.5787
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Halpern, László & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 1145, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Barrell, Ray & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1989. "Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the G7," CEPR Discussion Papers 323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
    4. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    5. Mark P. Taylor & Michael J. Artis, 1993. "Deer Hunting; Misalignment, Debt Accumulation, and Desired Equilibrium Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 93/48, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antoine Bouveret & Bruno Ducoudre, 2007. "On the Contingency of Equilibrium Exchange Rates with Time - Consistent Economic Policies," Sciences Po publications 2007-08, Sciences Po.
    2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6125 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hoarau, Jean-François, 2013. "Un modèle NATREX synthétique pour une petite économie « développée » ouverte contrainte sur les marchés internationaux de capitaux," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(4), pages 259-303, Décembre.
    4. Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Virginie Coudert, 1997. "Why the Euro will be Strong: an Approach Based on Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Working Papers 1997-18, CEPII research center.
    5. Carton, Benjamin & Hervé, Karine, 2012. "Estimation of consistent multi-country FEERs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1205-1214.
    6. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    7. Hoarau, Jean-François, 2009. "L’approche microéconomique du taux de change réel d’équilibre : une revue de la littérature théorique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(4), pages 403-436, décembre.

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