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“Quo Vadis Real? Estimating the Brazilian Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Vector Error Correction Model with Structural Change”


  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal
  • Fernando Barbi


This paper aims to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for the Brazilian economy. The equilibrium exchange rate is defined as the level of exchange rate that guarantees the stability of the net foreign asset position over time. An econometric model is estimated using a Vector Error Correction Model with structural breaks. The main conclusion of the paper is that the Brazilian exchange rate is below its long run values. The model also suggests that the improvement in fundamentals observed in the recent past is about to end. The level of misalignment is estimated at 18% in third quarter of 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Fernando Barbi, 2010. "“Quo Vadis Real? Estimating the Brazilian Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Vector Error Correction Model with Structural Change”," Working Papers 10-2010, Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto.
  • Handle: RePEc:fea:wpaper:10-2010

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item


    cointegração; mudança estrutural; taxa de câmbio real e desalinhamento;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange


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