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“Quo Vadis Real? Estimating the Brazilian Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Vector Error Correction Model with Structural Change”

  • Emerson Fernandes Marçal
  • Fernando Barbi

This paper aims to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for the Brazilian economy. The equilibrium exchange rate is defined as the level of exchange rate that guarantees the stability of the net foreign asset position over time. An econometric model is estimated using a Vector Error Correction Model with structural breaks. The main conclusion of the paper is that the Brazilian exchange rate is below its long run values. The model also suggests that the improvement in fundamentals observed in the recent past is about to end. The level of misalignment is estimated at 18% in third quarter of 2009.

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Paper provided by Universidade de São Paulo, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto in its series Working Papers with number 10-2010.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fea:wpaper:10-2010
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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  2. Ken Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, . "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," Working Paper 32027, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  3. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
  4. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A.M.Robert Taylor, 2008. "Testing for Co-integration in Vector Autoregressions with Non-Stationary Volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2008-50, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  5. Bent Nielsen & Soren Johansen and Rocco Mosconi, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W22, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970–2004," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp126, IIIS.
  7. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1996. "The Aftermath of Appreciations," NBER Working Papers 5650, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  9. Kristian Nilsson, 2004. "Do Fundamentals Explain the Behaviour of the Swedish Real Effective Exchange Rate?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(4), pages 603-622, December.
  10. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
  12. Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate; A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Balazs Egert & Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2004. "The Stock-Flow Approach to the Real Exchange Rate of CEE Transition Economies," Working Papers 2004-15, CEPII research center.
  14. Takamitsu Kurita & Bent Nielsen, 2005. "Short-Run Parameter Changes in a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Economics Papers 2005-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  15. Paolo Paruolo, 2006. "The Likelihood Ratio Test for the Rank of a Cointegration Submatrix," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 921-948, December.
  16. Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2000. "Structural Changes in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 2000-20, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  17. Megumi Kubota, . "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments: Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers 09/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
  18. Satish Chand, 2001. "How misaligned is the Australian real exchange rate?," International and Development Economics Working Papers idec01-2, International and Development Economics.
  19. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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