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Oil shocks, monetary policy, and economic activity

Author

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  • Michael Dotsey
  • Max Reid

Abstract

Various reasons have been given to explain downturns in U.S. economic activity since World War II. Romer and Romer (1989) argued that these recessions were primarily associated with monetary contractions, while Hamilton (1983) and others attributed them to oil price increases. We investigate these competing hypotheses and find that when measures of oil prices are included, the Romers’ measure of monetary policy does not significantly explain economic downturns. However, alternative measures of monetary policy, specifically the federal funds rate the spread between the ten-year Treasury rate and the federal funds rate, are significantly linked to economic activity. We also find that Hamilton’s result that oil prices significantly influence real activity are robust to the inclusion of these alternative indicators of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Dotsey & Max Reid, 1992. "Oil shocks, monetary policy, and economic activity," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Jul, pages 14-27.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrer:y:1992:i:jul:p:14-27:n:v.78no.4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sacchi, Agnese & Salotti, Simone, 2015. "The impact of national fiscal rules on the stabilisation function of fiscal policy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-20.
    2. Edelstein Paul & Kilian Lutz, 2007. "The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses about the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-41, November.
    3. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    4. Jeffrey A. Miron & Christina D. Romer & David N. Weil, 1994. "Historical Perspectives on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy, pages 263-306 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Leeper, Eric M., 1997. "Narrative and VAR approaches to monetary policy: Common identification problems," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 641-657, December.
    6. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    7. Sergey Drobyshevsky & A. Kozlovskaya & Pavel Trunin, . "Monetary and Credit Policy Options for an Oil Exporting Country," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.
    8. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Marcelo Sanchez, 2005. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 201-228.
    9. Lescaroux, François, 2008. "Une revue interprétée des élasticités entre le PIB et le prix du pétrole," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 84(4), pages 415-447, Décembre.
    10. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
    11. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    12. Finn, Mary G., 1995. "Variance properties of Solow's productivity residual and their cyclical implications," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 1249-1281.
    13. Mark A. Hooker, "undated". "Exploring the Robustness of the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2009. "Pitfalls in estimating asymmetric effects of energy price shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 970, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen, 2004. "Macroeconomic rationality and Lucas' misperceptions model: further evidence from 41 countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 227-241.
    16. Charles X. Hu, 1999. "Leverage, monetary policy, and firm investment," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 32-39.
    17. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
    18. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
    19. Min, Hong-Ghi & Lee, Duk-Hee & Nam, Changi & Park, Myeong-Cheol & Nam, Sang-Ho, 2003. "Determinants of emerging-market bond spreads: Cross-country evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 271-286, December.
    20. Monica Dudian & Mihaela Mosora & Cosmin Mosora & Stefanija Birova, 2017. "Oil Price and Economic Resilience. Romania’s Case," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(2), pages 1-8, February.
    21. Mary G. Finn, 1994. "Variance properties of Solow's productivity residual and their cyclical implications," Working Paper 94-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    22. Cameron, Ken & Schnusenberg, Oliver, 2009. "Oil prices, SUVs, and Iraq: An investigation of automobile manufacturer oil price sensitivity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 375-381, May.
    23. Spyros Andreopoulos, 2006. "The real interest rate, the real oil price, and US unemployment revisited," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/592, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    24. Owen F. Humpage & Eduard A. Pelz, 2002. "Do energy-price shocks affect core-price measures?," Working Paper 0215, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    25. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "Retail Energy Prices and Consumer Expenditures," CEPR Discussion Papers 6255, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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