IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/scm/ecofrm/v5y2016i1p1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Weak Form Of Informational Efficiency: Case Of Tunisian Banking Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Fatma SIALA GUERMEZI,

    (Faculty of Economics and Management of Tunis, Tunisia)

  • Amani BOUSSAADA

    (Faculty of Economics and Management of Tunis, Tunisia)

Abstract

This paper investigates the weak form of market efficiency hypothesis over eleven Tunisian banks listed on the Tunisian Stock Exchange during the period July 2012 to June 2013. GARCH (1, 1) and its extension EGARCH (1,1) are developed in order to describe the sign and size of financial volatility asymmetry. The results indicate that the Tunisian stock market, in particular the banking sector would not show characteristics of market efficiency. Some of the bank securities asymmetrically reacted to good and bad news. The presence of the leverage effect would imply that negative innovation (news) has a greater impact on volatility than a positive innovation (news). This implies that this sector is not efficient under the weak form of the hypothesis. The implication of rejecting the weak form of efficiency for investors is that they can better predict stock price movements and abnormal earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatma SIALA GUERMEZI, & Amani BOUSSAADA, 2016. "The Weak Form Of Informational Efficiency: Case Of Tunisian Banking Sector," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 5(1), pages 1-1, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:scm:ecofrm:v:5:y:2016:i:1:p:1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ecoforumjournal.ro/index.php/eco/article/view/338/197
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Omay, Nazli C. & Karadagli, Ece C., 2010. "Testing Weak Form Market Efficiency for Emerging Economies: A Nonlinear Approach," MPRA Paper 27312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    3. Francesco Guidi & Rakesh Gupta & Suneel Maheshwari, 2011. "Weak-form Market Efficiency and Calendar Anomalies for Eastern Europe Equity Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 10(3), pages 337-389, December.
    4. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    7. Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
    8. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    9. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 1-28.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    11. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    12. Chris Brooks & Simon Burke, 2003. "Information criteria for GARCH model selection," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 557-580.
    13. Lo, Andrew W, 1991. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-1313, September.
    14. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    15. Fama, Eugene F., 1998. "Market efficiency, long-term returns, and behavioral finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 283-306, September.
    16. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    17. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Maskin, Eric S, 1990. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Insider Trading on the Stock Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(1), pages 70-93, February.
    18. Mr. Mauro Mecagni & Maged Sawky Sourial, 1999. "The Egyptian Stock Market: Efficiency Tests and Volatility Effects," IMF Working Papers 1999/048, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Grossman, Sanford J, 1976. "On the Efficiency of Competitive Stock Markets Where Trades Have Diverse Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 573-585, May.
    20. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
    21. Elroy Dimson & Massoud Mussavian, 1998. "A brief history of market efficiency," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 4(1), pages 91-103.
    22. Bera, Anil K & Higgins, Matthew L, 1993. "ARCH Models: Properties, Estimation and Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 305-366, December.
    23. Mohammed Omran & Suzanne V. Farrar, 2006. "Tests of weak form efficiency in the Middle East emerging markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 23(1), pages 13-26, March.
    24. Hyun-Jung Ryoo & Graham Smith, 2002. "Korean stock prices under price limits: variance ratio tests of random walks," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(8), pages 545-553.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. H. Khoj & H. Akeel, 2020. "Testing Weak-Form Market Efficiency: The Case of Saudi Arabia," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(6), pages 644-653, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    2. Kamal, Mona, 2014. "Studying the Validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) after the 25th of January Revolution," MPRA Paper 54708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Claudeci Da Silva & Hugo Agudelo Murillo & Joaquim Miguel Couto, 2014. "Early Warning Systems: Análise De Ummodelo Probit De Contágio De Crise Dos Estados Unidos Para O Brasil(2000-2010)," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 110, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Leković Miljan, 2018. "Evidence for and Against the Validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 56(3), pages 369-387, September.
    6. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    7. Kin Lam & Li Wei, "undated". "Optimal Trading Strategy When Return Process is AR(1)," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 16, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. Leopoldo S'anchez-Cant'u & Carlos Arturo Soto-Campos & Andriy Kryvko, 2016. "Evidence of Self-Organization in Time Series of Capital Markets," Papers 1604.03996, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2017.
    9. Alagidede, Paul & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2009. "Modelling stock returns in Africa's emerging equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 1-11, March.
    10. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2008. "Are Asian stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 518-532, June.
    11. F. DePenya & L. Gil-Alana, 2006. "Testing of nonstationary cycles in financial time series data," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 47-65, August.
    12. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    13. Ben Rejeb, Aymen & Boughrara, Adel, 2013. "Financial liberalization and stock markets efficiency: New evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 186-208.
    14. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Victor Dragotă & Elena Ţilică, 2014. "Market efficiency of the Post Communist East European stock markets," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 22(2), pages 307-337, June.
    16. Alagidede, Paul, 2011. "Return behaviour in Africa's emerging equity markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 133-140, May.
    17. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021.
    18. Detlef Seese & Christof Weinhardt & Frank Schlottmann (ed.), 2008. "Handbook on Information Technology in Finance," International Handbooks on Information Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-49487-4, November.
    19. Alexander S. Sangare, 2005. "Efficience des marchés : un siècle après Bachelier," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 81(4), pages 107-132.
    20. Taufiq Choudhry & Ranadeva Jayasekera, 2015. "Level of efficiency in the UK equity market: empirical study of the effects of the global financial crisis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 213-242, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:scm:ecofrm:v:5:y:2016:i:1:p:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Iulian Condratov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feusvro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.