IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing Weak Form Market Efficiency for Emerging Economies: A Nonlinear Approach


  • Omay, Nazli C.
  • Karadagli, Ece C.


In this paper, we address weak form stock market efficiency of Emerging Economies, by testing whether the price series of these markets contain unit root. Nonlinear behavior of stock prices is well documented in the literature, and thus linear unit root tests may not be appropriate in this case. For this purpose, we employ the nonlinear unit root test procedure recently developed by Kapetanios et al. (2003) and nonlinear panel unit root test Ucar and Omay (2009) that has a better power than standard unit root tests when series under consideration are characterized by a slower speed of mean reversion. Large power gains are achieved through combining cross-sectional information and nonlinear estimation techniques in computing unit root tests. The results of ADF and PP indicate that Bulgarian, Greek, Hungarian, Polish, Romanian, Russian, Slovenian and Turkish stock markets are weak form efficient, while the results of nonlinear unit root test implies that Russian, Romanian and Polish stock markets are not weak form efficient. Moreover, the linear panel unit root test suggest that this group as all efficient where as nonlinear panel unit root test suggest as a group they are not efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Omay, Nazli C. & Karadagli, Ece C., 2010. "Testing Weak Form Market Efficiency for Emerging Economies: A Nonlinear Approach," MPRA Paper 27312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27312

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Grieb, Terrance & Reyes, Mario G, 1999. "Random Walk Tests for Latin American Equity Indexes and Individual Firms," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 371-383, Winter.
    2. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    3. Holthausen, Robert W. & Leftwich, Richard W. & Mayers, David, 1987. "The effect of large block transactions on security prices: A cross-sectional analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 237-267, December.
    4. M. Magnusson & B. Wydick, 2002. "How Efficient are Africa's Emerging Stock Markets?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 141-156.
    5. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    6. Omay, Tolga & Öznur Kan, Elif, 2010. "Re-examining the threshold effects in the inflation-growth nexus with cross-sectionally dependent non-linear panel: Evidence from six industrialized economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 996-1005, September.
    7. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
    8. Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1990. " Anomalous Price Behavior around Repurchase Tender Offers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 455-477, June.
    9. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    10. Rebecca Emerson & Stephen Hall & Anna Zalewska-Mitura, 1997. "Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 75-90, May.
    11. Jean-Michel Courtault & Yuri Kabanov & Bernard Bru & Pierre Crépel & Isabelle Lebon & Arnaud Le Marchand, 2000. "Louis Bachelier on the Centenary of "Théorie de la Spéculation"," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 339-353.
    12. Ucar, Nuri & Omay, Tolga, 2009. "Testing for unit root in nonlinear heterogeneous panels," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 5-8, July.
    13. Copeland, Thomas E, 1979. "Liquidity Changes Following Stock Splits," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 115-141, March.
    14. Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2001. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model to Test for Predictability and Integration in the Stock Markets of Transition Economies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 73-84, January.
    15. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415, May.
    16. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    17. Gallagher, Liam A & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Risky Arbitrage, Limits of Arbitrage, and Nonlinear Adjustment in the Dividend-Price Ratio," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 524-536, October.
    18. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    19. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    20. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-879, August.
    21. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    22. repec:bla:joares:v:29:y:1991:i:2:p:302-321 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Xiaming Liu & Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly, 1997. "Are Chinese stock markets efficient? A cointegration and causality analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(8), pages 511-515.
    24. Zalewska-Mitura, Anna & Hall, Stephen G., 1999. "Examining the first stages of market performance: a test for evolving market efficiency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 1-12, July.
    25. French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
    26. Dirk Te Velde, 2001. "Balance of payments prospects in EMU," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 178, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    27. Barry Harrison & David Paton, 2005. "Transition, the Evolution of Stock Market Efficiency and Entry into EU: The Case of Romania," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 203-223, September.
    28. Mubariz Hasanov & Tolga Omay, 2008. "Nonlinearities in emerging stock markets: evidence from Europe's two largest emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(20), pages 2645-2658.
    29. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-180.
    30. Kraus, Alan & Stoll, Hans R, 1972. "Price Impacts of Block Trading on the New York Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 569-588, June.
    31. Elroy Dimson & Massoud Mussavian, 1998. "A brief history of market efficiency," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 4(1), pages 91-103.
    32. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    33. E. Dockery & F. Vergari, 1997. "Testing the random walk hypothesis: evidence for the Budapest stock exchange," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(10), pages 627-629.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Camelia Oprean, 2012. "Testing the financial market informational efficiency in emerging states," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 4(2), pages 181-190, Decembre.
    2. Victor Dragotă & Elena Ţilică, 2014. "Market efficiency of the Post Communist East European stock markets," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 22(2), pages 307-337, June.

    More about this item


    Keywords: Linear and Nonlinear Unit root and Panel Unit Root; Emerging Markets; Market Efficiency;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27312. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.