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Explaining European Emission Allowance Price Dynamics: Evidence from Phase II

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Listed:
  • Wilfried Rickels
  • Dennis Görlich
  • Sonja Peterson

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="geer12045-abs-0001"> We empirically investigate potential determinants of the allowance price dynamics in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme during Phase II. In contrast to previous studies, we place particular emphasis on the fuel price selection. We show that results are extremely sensitive to choosing different price series of potential determinants, such as coal and gas prices. In general, only the influence of economic activity in Europe and hydropower provision in Norway is robustly explaining allowance price dynamics. The influence of fuel switching on allowance prices and, therefore, equalization of marginal abatement costs – in particular in the long run – is still rather small.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilfried Rickels & Dennis Görlich & Sonja Peterson, 2015. "Explaining European Emission Allowance Price Dynamics: Evidence from Phase II," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(2), pages 181-202, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:16:y:2015:i:2:p:181-202
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/geer.2015.16.issue-2
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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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