IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/juipol/v33y2015icp54-62.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

European Union emissions trading scheme impact on the Spanish electricity price during phase II and phase III implementation

Author

Listed:
  • Freitas, Carlos J. Pereira
  • Silva, Patrícia Pereira da

Abstract

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is a cornerstone of the European Union's policy to combat climate change and its key tool for reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. The purpose of the present work is to evaluate the influence of CO2 opportunity cost on the Spanish wholesale electricity price. Our sample includes all Phase II of the EU ETS and the first year of Phase III implementation, from January 2008 to December 2013. A vector error correction model (VECM) is applied to estimate not only long-run equilibrium relations, but also short-run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The four commodities prices are modeled as joint endogenous variables with air temperature and renewable energy as exogenous variables. We found a long-run relationship (cointegration) between electricity price, carbon price, and fuel prices. By estimating the dynamic pass-through of carbon price into electricity price for different periods of our sample, it is possible to observe the weakening of the link between carbon and electricity prices as a result from the collapse on CO2 prices, therefore compromising the efficacy of the system to reach proposed environmental goals. This conclusion is in line with the need to shape new policies within the framework of the EU ETS that prevent excessive low prices for carbon over extended periods of time.

Suggested Citation

  • Freitas, Carlos J. Pereira & Silva, Patrícia Pereira da, 2015. "European Union emissions trading scheme impact on the Spanish electricity price during phase II and phase III implementation," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 54-62.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:33:y:2015:i:c:p:54-62
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2015.01.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178715000053
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    2. Glachant, Jean-Michel & Ruester, Sophia, 2014. "The EU internal electricity market: Done forever?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 221-228.
    3. Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2009. "Market integration among electricity markets and their major fuel source markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 482-491, May.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Jouvet, Pierre-André & Solier, Boris, 2013. "An overview of CO2 cost pass-through to electricity prices in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1370-1376.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4222 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Fagiani, Riccardo & Richstein, Jörn C. & Hakvoort, Rudi & De Vries, Laurens, 2014. "The dynamic impact of carbon reduction and renewable support policies on the electricity sector," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 28-41.
    8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7761 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Cotton, Deborah & De Mello, Lurion, 2014. "Econometric analysis of Australian emissions markets and electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 475-485.
    11. Sophie Chemarin & Andreas Heinen & Eric Strobl, 2008. "Electricity, carbon and weather in France: where do we stand ?," Working Papers hal-00340171, HAL.
    12. Wietze Lise & Jos Sijm & Benjamin Hobbs, 2010. "The Impact of the EU ETS on Prices, Profits and Emissions in the Power Sector: Simulation Results with the COMPETES EU20 Model," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 47(1), pages 23-44, September.
    13. Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
    14. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    15. Harrison Fell, 2010. "EU-ETS and Nordic Electricity: A CVAR Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-26.
    16. Egil Ferkingstad & Anders L{o}land & Mathilde Wilhelmsen, 2011. "Causal modeling and inference for electricity markets," Papers 1110.5429, arXiv.org.
    17. Jos Sijm & Karsten Neuhoff & Yihsu Chen, 2006. "CO 2 cost pass-through and windfall profits in the power sector," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 49-72, January.
    18. Mohammadi, Hassan, 2009. "Electricity prices and fuel costs: Long-run relations and short-run dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 503-509, May.
    19. Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Angel Pardo & Enric Valor, 2007. "CO2 Prices, Energy and Weather," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-92.
    20. Ferkingstad, Egil & Løland, Anders & Wilhelmsen, Mathilde, 2011. "Causal modeling and inference for electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 404-412, May.
    21. Koch, Nicolas & Fuss, Sabine & Grosjean, Godefroy & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2014. "Causes of the EU ETS price drop: Recession, CDM, renewable policies or a bit of everything?—New evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 676-685.
    22. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    23. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2002. "Comparison of unit root tests for time series with level shifts," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(6), pages 667-685, November.
    24. Carlos Pinho & Mara Madaleno, 2011. "CO 2 emission allowances and other fuel markets interaction," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 13(3), pages 259-281, September.
    25. Moutinho, Victor & Vieira, Joel & Carrizo Moreira, António, 2011. "The crucial relationship among energy commodity prices: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5898-5908, October.
    26. Glachant, Jean-Michel & Ruester, Sophia, 2014. "The EU internal electricity market: Done forever?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1-7.
    27. Boersen, Arieke & Scholtens, Bert, 2014. "The relationship between European electricity markets and emission allowance futures prices in phase II of the EU (European Union) emission trading scheme," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 585-594.
    28. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-399, October.
    29. Aatola, Piia & Ollikainen, Markku & Toppinen, Anne, 2013. "Impact of the carbon price on the integrating European electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1236-1251.
    30. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    31. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    32. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    33. Gelabert, Liliana & Labandeira, Xavier & Linares, Pedro, 2011. "An ex-post analysis of the effect of renewables and cogeneration on Spanish electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(S1), pages 59-65.
    34. Carlos J. Pereira Freitas & Patrícia Pereira Da Silva, 2013. "Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices - a cointegrated VECM analysis," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1/2), pages 65-85.
    35. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    36. Van den Bergh, Kenneth & Delarue, Erik & D'haeseleer, William, 2013. "Impact of renewables deployment on the CO2 price and the CO2 emissions in the European electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1021-1031.
    37. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    38. Bonacina, Monica & Gulli`, Francesco, 2007. "Electricity pricing under "carbon emissions trading": A dominant firm with competitive fringe model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4200-4220, August.
    39. Blázquez, Leticia & Boogen, Nina & Filippini, Massimo, 2013. "Residential electricity demand in Spain: New empirical evidence using aggregate data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 648-657.
    40. Perrels, Adriaan & Honkatukia, Juha & Mälkönen, Ville, 2006. "Impacts of the European Emission Trade System on Finnish Wholesale Electricity Prices," Discussion Papers 405, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Zagonari, 2018. "Coherence, Causality, and Effectiveness of the EU Environmental Policy System: Results of Complementary Statistical and Econometric Analyses," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 70(1), pages 1-29, May.
    2. Chang, Kai & Ye, Zhifang & Wang, Weihong, 2019. "Volatility spillover effect and dynamic correlation between regional emissions allowances and fossil energy markets: New evidence from China’s emissions trading scheme pilots," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 1314-1324.
    3. Georg Wolff & Stefan Feuerriegel, 2019. "Emissions Trading System of the European Union: Emission Allowances and EPEX Electricity Prices in Phase III," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(15), pages 1-1, July.
    4. da Silva, Patricia Pereira & Moreno, Blanca & Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho, 2016. "Firm-specific impacts of CO2 prices on the stock market value of the Spanish power industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 492-501.
    5. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2019. "What happens to the relationship between EU allowances prices and stock market indices in Europe?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 13-24.
    6. Schusser, Sandra & Jaraitė, Jūratė, 2018. "Explaining the interplay of three markets: Green certificates, carbon emissions and electricity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-13.
    7. Tadahiro Nakajima, 2019. "Expectations for Statistical Arbitrage in Energy Futures Markets," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(1), pages 1-1, January.
    8. Zhu, Bangzhu & Yuan, Lili & Ye, Shunxin, 2019. "Examining the multi-timescales of European carbon market with grey relational analysis and empirical mode decomposition," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 392-399.
    9. Feria-Domínguez, José Manuel & Rodriguez-Carrillero, David & Guerra-Martinez, José Carlos, 2018. "Measuring the risk-adjusted performance of CO2 emission markets: Evidence from SENDECO2," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 124-132.
    10. da Silva, Patrícia Pereira & Cerqueira, Pedro A., 2017. "Assessing the determinants of household electricity prices in the EU: a system-GMM panel data approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1131-1137.
    11. Zhu, Bangzhu & Han, Dong & Chevallier, Julien & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Dynamic multiscale interactions between European carbon and electricity markets during 2005–2016," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 309-322.
    12. Chang, Kai & Ge, Fangping & Zhang, Chao & Wang, Weihong, 2018. "The dynamic linkage effect between energy and emissions allowances price for regional emissions trading scheme pilots in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 415-425.
    13. Moreno, Blanca & Díaz, Guzmán, 2019. "The impact of virtual power plant technology composition on wholesale electricity prices: A comparative study of some European Union electricity markets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 100-108.
    14. Liu, Xiuli & Moreno, Blanca & García, Ana Salomé, 2016. "A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model. Primary energy consumption forecasts in Spanish economic sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 1042-1054.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Q58; H23; Q48; C32; L94; Environmental policy; Carbon emissions; Electricity prices; Cointegration; Vector error correction model;

    JEL classification:

    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:33:y:2015:i:c:p:54-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30478 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.