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Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices - a cointegrated VECM analysis

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  • Carlos J. Pereira Freitas
  • Patrícia Pereira Da Silva

Abstract

This paper addresses the impact of the CO2 opportunity cost on the wholesale electricity price in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL), namely on the Portuguese system, for the period corresponding to the Phase II of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the econometric analysis a vector error correction model (VECM) is specified to estimate both long-run equilibrium relations and short-run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The model is estimated using daily spot market prices and the four commodities prices are jointly modelled as endogenous variables. Moreover, a set of exogenous variables is incorporated in order to account for the electricity demand conditions (temperature) and the electricity generation mix (quantity of electricity traded according the technology used). The outcomes for the Portuguese electricity system suggest that the dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices is strongly significant and a long-run elasticity was estimated (equilibrium relation) that is aligned with studies that have been conducted for other markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos J. Pereira Freitas & Patrícia Pereira Da Silva, 2013. "Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices - a cointegrated VECM analysis," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1/2), pages 65-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijpubp:v:9:y:2013:i:1/2:p:65-85
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. da Silva, Patrícia Pereira & Cerqueira, Pedro A., 2017. "Assessing the determinants of household electricity prices in the EU: a system-GMM panel data approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1131-1137.
    2. Guo, Bowei & Castagneto Gissey, Giorgio, 2021. "Cost pass-through in the British wholesale electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho & Silva, Patrícia Pereira da & Bunn, Derek, 2016. "Weather and market specificities in the regional transmission of renewable energy price effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 188-200.
    4. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2021. "Lithium industry and the U.S. crude oil prices. A fractional cointegration VAR and a Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Bowei Guo & Giorgio Castagneto Gissey, 2019. "Cost Pass-through in the British Wholesale Electricity Market: Implications of Brexit and the ETS reform," Working Papers EPRG1937, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    6. da Silva, Patricia Pereira & Moreno, Blanca & Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho, 2016. "Firm-specific impacts of CO2 prices on the stock market value of the Spanish power industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 492-501.
    7. Jung Youn Mo & Wooyoung Jeon, 2018. "The Impact of Electric Vehicle Demand and Battery Recycling on Price Dynamics of Lithium-Ion Battery Cathode Materials: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-15, August.
    8. Cotton, Deborah & De Mello, Lurion, 2014. "Econometric analysis of Australian emissions markets and electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 475-485.
    9. Taufiq Supriadi & Kurniawan Tjakrawala & Nyoman Adhi Suryadnyana & Juska Meidy Enyke Sjam & Rochman Marota, 2025. "Fraud Prevention in the Public Sector: The Role of Internal Audit," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 170-183.
    10. Xu, Jia & Tan, Xiujie & He, Gang & Liu, Yu, 2019. "Disentangling the drivers of carbon prices in China's ETS pilots — An EEMD approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-9.
    11. Moreno, Blanca & Díaz, Guzmán, 2019. "The impact of virtual power plant technology composition on wholesale electricity prices: A comparative study of some European Union electricity markets," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 100-108.
    12. Blanca Moreno & María T García-à lvarez, 2017. "Analyzing the impact of fossil fuel import reliance on electricity prices: The case of the Iberian Electricity Market," Energy & Environment, , vol. 28(7), pages 687-705, November.
    13. Freitas, Carlos J. Pereira & Silva, Patrícia Pereira da, 2015. "European Union emissions trading scheme impact on the Spanish electricity price during phase II and phase III implementation," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 54-62.
    14. Deetjen, Thomas A. & Martin, Henry & Rhodes, Joshua D. & Webber, Michael E., 2018. "Modeling the optimal mix and location of wind and solar with transmission and carbon pricing considerations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 35-50.
    15. Patrícia Pereira da Silva & Pedro Cerqueira, 2014. "Drivers for Household Electricity Prices in the EU: A System-GMM Panel Data Approach," GEMF Working Papers 2014-13, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    16. Pinar Unal, 2025. "The Interrelation Between the Carbon Trading Systems and Energy Markets and Economic Outlook: A Comparative Analysis Using VECM and ARDL," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 145-169.
    17. Liu, Xiuli & Moreno, Blanca & García, Ana Salomé, 2016. "A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model. Primary energy consumption forecasts in Spanish economic sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 1042-1054.

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