IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v114y2016icp188-200.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Weather and market specificities in the regional transmission of renewable energy price effects

Author

Listed:
  • Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho
  • Silva, Patrícia Pereira da
  • Bunn, Derek

Abstract

This study is motivated by the observation that the effects of renewable energy output variations across several integrated power markets are likely to be complicated by price arbitrage and weather dynamics. Wind in particular has supply side effects when associated with substantial generating facilities, but also demand side influences when associated with extreme weather conditions. To unravel these effects, daily electricity prices and the weather variables wind, temperature and their interaction (wind chill) in the Central-West Europe coupled market were analysed from 2007 to the end of 2014 by means of vector autoregressions. The spillover effects were found to be quite subtle. Despite efficient price arbitrage, it is not the case that daily wind output shocks diffuse uniformly across all markets, or that the largest generator of wind energy creates the most significant spillovers or that high wind conditions necessarily lead to lower prices. Market specificities matter and are important for operational prediction and weather risk hedging.

Suggested Citation

  • Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho & Silva, Patrícia Pereira da & Bunn, Derek, 2016. "Weather and market specificities in the regional transmission of renewable energy price effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 188-200.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:114:y:2016:i:c:p:188-200
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.07.157
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544216310908
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2016.07.157?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick & Husmann, Sven, 2015. "Efficient modeling and forecasting of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 98-111.
    2. Würzburg, Klaas & Labandeira, Xavier & Linares, Pedro, 2013. "Renewable generation and electricity prices: Taking stock and new evidence for Germany and Austria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 159-171.
    3. Bessec, Marie & Fouquau, Julien, 2008. "The non-linear link between electricity consumption and temperature in Europe: A threshold panel approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2705-2721, September.
    4. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    5. Keles, Dogan & Genoese, Massimo & Möst, Dominik & Ortlieb, Sebastian & Fichtner, Wolf, 2013. "A combined modeling approach for wind power feed-in and electricity spot prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 213-225.
    6. Pardo, Angel & Meneu, Vicente & Valor, Enric, 2002. "Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, January.
    7. Taylor, James W. & Buizza, Roberto, 2003. "Using weather ensemble predictions in electricity demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 57-70.
    8. Roques, Fabien & Hiroux, Céline & Saguan, Marcelo, 2010. "Optimal wind power deployment in Europe--A portfolio approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3245-3256, July.
    9. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    10. repec:qut:auncer:2012_5 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/8180 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Banovac, Eraldo & Glavić, Mevludin & Tešnjak, Sejid, 2009. "Establishing an efficient regulatory mechanism—Prerequisite for successful energy activities regulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 178-189.
    13. Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Forecasting electricity prices: The impact of fundamentals and time-varying coefficients," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 764-785.
    14. Bordignon, Silvano & Bunn, Derek W. & Lisi, Francesco & Nan, Fany, 2013. "Combining day-ahead forecasts for British electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 88-103.
    15. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    16. Higgs, Helen & Worthington, Andrew, 2008. "Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3172-3185, November.
    17. Higgs, Helen, 2009. "Modelling price and volatility inter-relationships in the Australian wholesale spot electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 748-756, September.
    18. Weron, Rafal & Misiorek, Adam, 2008. "Forecasting spot electricity prices: A comparison of parametric and semiparametric time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 744-763.
    19. Zachmann, Georg, 2013. "A stochastic fuel switching model for electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 5-13.
    20. Gianfreda, Angelica & Grossi, Luigi, 2012. "Forecasting Italian electricity zonal prices with exogenous variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2228-2239.
    21. Sébastien Phan & Fabien Roques, 2015. "Is the Depressive Effect of Renewables on Power Prices Contagious? A Cross Border Econometric Analysis," Working Papers EPRG 1517, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    22. Meyer, Niels I., 2003. "European schemes for promoting renewables in liberalised markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 665-676, June.
    23. Amorim, F. & Vasconcelos, J. & Abreu, I.C. & Silva, P.P. & Martins, V., 2013. "How much room for a competitive electricity generation market in Portugal?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 103-118.
    24. François Coppens & David Vivet, 2006. "The single European electricity market: A long road to convergence," Working Paper Document 84, National Bank of Belgium.
    25. Sailor, David J. & Muñoz, J.Ricardo, 1997. "Sensitivity of electricity and natural gas consumption to climate in the U.S.A.—Methodology and results for eight states," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 22(10), pages 987-998.
    26. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    27. Amjady, N. & Keynia, F., 2009. "Short-term load forecasting of power systems by combination of wavelet transform and neuro-evolutionary algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 46-57.
    28. Christensen, T.M. & Hurn, A.S. & Lindsay, K.A., 2012. "Forecasting spikes in electricity prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 400-411.
    29. Worthington, Andrew & Kay-Spratley, Adam & Higgs, Helen, 2005. "Transmission of prices and price volatility in Australian electricity spot markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 337-350, March.
    30. Park, Haesun & Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 81-101, January.
    31. Helen Higgs, 2009. "Modelling price and volatility inter-relationships in the Australian wholesale spot electricity markets," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:200904, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    32. De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 1999. "Cointegration analysis of spot electricity prices: insights on transmission efficiency in the western US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 435-448, October.
    33. Sébastien Phan & Fabien Roques, 2015. "Is the depressive effect of renewables on power prices contagious? A cross border econometric analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1527, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    34. Lester Hadsell, Achla Marathe and Hany A. Shawky, 2004. "Estimating the Volatility of Wholesale Electricity Spot Prices in the US," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 23-40.
    35. Mirasgedis, S. & Sarafidis, Y. & Georgopoulou, E. & Lalas, D.P. & Moschovits, M. & Karagiannis, F. & Papakonstantinou, D., 2006. "Models for mid-term electricity demand forecasting incorporating weather influences," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 208-227.
    36. Carlos J. Pereira Freitas & Patrícia Pereira Da Silva, 2013. "Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices - a cointegrated VECM analysis," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1/2), pages 65-85.
    37. Bunn, Derek W. & Gianfreda, Angelica, 2010. "Integration and shock transmissions across European electricity forward markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 278-291, March.
    38. Karova, Rozeta, 2011. "Regional electricity markets in Europe: Focus on the Energy Community," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 80-86, June.
    39. Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Intra-day and regime-switching dynamics in electricity price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1776-1797, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ioannidis, Filippos & Kosmidou, Kyriaki & Makridou, Georgia & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2019. "Market design of an energy exchange: The case of Greece," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Bigerna, Simona, 2018. "Estimating temperature effects on the Italian electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 257-269.
    3. Gianfreda, Angelica & Scandolo, Giacomo, 2023. "A worldwide analysis of the energy regulatory tasks and activities through the lenses of entropy and unsupervised statistical learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    4. Thakur, Jagruti & Chakraborty, Basab, 2018. "Impact of increased solar penetration on bill savings of net metered residential consumers in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 776-786.
    5. Hirth, Lion & Mühlenpfordt, Jonathan & Bulkeley, Marisa, 2018. "The ENTSO-E Transparency Platform – A review of Europe’s most ambitious electricity data platform," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 1054-1067.
    6. Mosquera-López, Stephania & Uribe, Jorge M., 2022. "Pricing the risk due to weather conditions in small variable renewable energy projects," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    7. Tselika, Kyriaki & Tselika, Maria & Demetriades, Elias, 2024. "Quantifying the short-term asymmetric effects of renewable energy on the electricity merit-order curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. João Soares & Tiago Pinto & Fernando Lezama & Hugo Morais, 2018. "Survey on Complex Optimization and Simulation for the New Power Systems Paradigm," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-32, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho & Silva, Patrícia Pereira da & Cerqueira, Pedro A., 2015. "Evaluating the market splitting determinants: evidence from the Iberian spot electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 218-234.
    2. Nuno Carvalho Figueiredo & Patrícia Pereira da Silva & Pedro Cerqueira, 2014. "The Renewables Influence on Market Splitting: the Iberian Spot Electricity Market," GEMF Working Papers 2014-14, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    3. Han, Lin & Kordzakhia, Nino & Trück, Stefan, 2020. "Volatility spillovers in Australian electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Yan, Guan & Trück, Stefan, 2020. "A dynamic network analysis of spot electricity prices in the Australian national electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    5. Nuno Carvalho Figueiredo & Patrícia Pereira da Silva & Pedro Cerqueira, 2014. "The Renewables Influence on Market Splitting: the Iberian Spot Electricity Market," GEMF Working Papers 2014-14, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    6. Yasir Alsaedi & Gurudeo Anand Tularam & Victor Wong, 2020. "Impact of Solar and Wind Prices on the Integrated Global Electricity Spot and Options Markets: A Time Series Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 337-353.
    7. Ciarreta Antuñano, Aitor & Zárraga Alonso, Ainhoa, 2012. "Analysis of volatility transmissions in integrated and interconnected markets: The case of the Iberian and French markets," BILTOKI 1134-8984, Universidad del País Vasco - Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística).
    8. Billé, Anna Gloria & Gianfreda, Angelica & Del Grosso, Filippo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023. "Forecasting electricity prices with expert, linear, and nonlinear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 570-586.
    9. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    10. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    11. Florian Ziel, 2015. "Forecasting Electricity Spot Prices using Lasso: On Capturing the Autoregressive Intraday Structure," Papers 1509.01966, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    12. Higgs, Helen & Lien, Gudbrand & Worthington, Andrew C., 2015. "Australian evidence on the role of interregional flows, production capacity, and generation mix in wholesale electricity prices and price volatility," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 172-181.
    13. Bartosz Uniejewski & Jakub Nowotarski & Rafał Weron, 2016. "Automated Variable Selection and Shrinkage for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, August.
    14. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick & Husmann, Sven, 2015. "Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 430-444.
    15. Ma, Rufei & Liu, Zhenhua & Zhai, Pengxiang, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive volatility spillovers in electricity markets: Time and frequency evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    16. Brusaferri, Alessandro & Matteucci, Matteo & Portolani, Pietro & Vitali, Andrea, 2019. "Bayesian deep learning based method for probabilistic forecast of day-ahead electricity prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 1158-1175.
    17. Chanatásig-Niza, Evelyn & Ciarreta, Aitor & Zarraga, Ainhoa, 2022. "A volatility spillover analysis with realized semi(co)variances in Australian electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    18. Ziel, Florian & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 396-420.
    19. Ioannidis, Filippos & Kosmidou, Kyriaki & Savva, Christos & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 2021. "Electricity pricing using a periodic GARCH model with conditional skewness and kurtosis components," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    20. Florian Ziel & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate models," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:114:y:2016:i:c:p:188-200. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.