IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v139y2019icp1-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Disentangling the drivers of carbon prices in China's ETS pilots — An EEMD approach

Author

Listed:
  • Xu, Jia
  • Tan, Xiujie
  • He, Gang
  • Liu, Yu

Abstract

Excessive price fluctuations would affect the effectiveness of Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and low-carbon investment. Therefore, the drivers of carbon prices need to be disentangled to analyze the price formation process, which is important for both policy makers and investors. By applying the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method, we decompose the historical carbon price data of the five ETS pilots in China into five groups of the independent Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) sequences and the residue, respectively. Then, the IMFs and the residue in each pilot are reconstructed into a high frequency component, a low frequency component and a trend component, thus disentangling the effects of short-term market fluctuations, significant events, and the long-term trend. The main findings are as follows. First, the IMF with a period around one year is the most influential factor, which reflects that pilots are characterized by the yearly cycle. Second, significant events have greater impacts than short-term market fluctuations, and are the dominant driver in Shanghai and Beijing pilots. Third, the long-term trend plays a decisive role in Shenzhen, Guangdong and Hubei pilots. The price stabilization mechanism is critical to avoid a severe imbalance between demand and supply in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Jia & Tan, Xiujie & He, Gang & Liu, Yu, 2019. "Disentangling the drivers of carbon prices in China's ETS pilots — An EEMD approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-9.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:139:y:2019:i:c:p:1-9
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.11.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162518313350
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.11.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 72-86.
    2. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    3. Grant, Angelia L. & Chan, Joshua C.C., 2017. "Reconciling output gaps: Unobserved components model and Hodrick–Prescott filter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 114-121.
    4. Salant, Stephen W., 2016. "What ails the European Union׳s emissions trading system?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 6-19.
    5. Chevallier, Julien, 2009. "Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors: A view from the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 614-625, July.
    6. Holt, Charles A. & Shobe, William M., 2016. "Reprint of: Price and quantity collars for stabilizing emission allowance prices: Laboratory experiments on the EU ETS market stability reserve," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 69-86.
    7. Hintermann, Beat, 2010. "Allowance price drivers in the first phase of the EU ETS," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-56, January.
    8. Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Pigorsch, Uta & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2013. "Nonlinearity in cap-and-trade systems: The EUA price and its fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 222-232.
    9. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6970 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2010. "An overview of current research on EU ETS: Evidence from its operating mechanism and economic effect," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1804-1814, June.
    11. Emilie Alberola & Julien Chevallier, 2009. "European Carbon Prices and Banking Restrictions: Evidence from Phase I (2005-2007)," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 51-80.
    12. Zhen-Hua Feng & Chun-Feng Liu & Yi-Ming Wei, 2011. "How does carbon price change? Evidences from EU ETS," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 35(2/3/4), pages 132-144.
    13. Zaklan, Aleksandar & Ellerman, Denny & Valero, Vanessa, 2015. "An Analysis of Allowance Banking in the EU ETS," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113034, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Creti, Anna & Jouvet, Pierre-André & Mignon, Valérie, 2012. "Carbon price drivers: Phase I versus Phase II equilibrium?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 327-334.
    15. Cong, Ren & Lo, Alex Y., 2017. "Emission trading and carbon market performance in Shenzhen, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 414-425.
    16. Arouri, Mohamed El Hédi & Jawadi, Fredj & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Nonlinearities in carbon spot-futures price relationships during Phase II of the EU ETS," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 884-892.
    17. Kollenberg, Sascha & Taschini, Luca, 2016. "Emissions trading systems with cap adjustments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 20-36.
    18. Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
    19. Kanamura, Takashi, 2016. "Role of carbon swap trading and energy prices in price correlations and volatilities between carbon markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 204-212.
    20. Fan, Ying & Jia, Jun-Jun & Wang, Xin & Xu, Jin-Hua, 2017. "What policy adjustments in the EU ETS truly affected the carbon prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 145-164.
    21. Lisi, Francesco & Nan, Fany, 2014. "Component estimation for electricity prices: Procedures and comparisons," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 143-159.
    22. Julien Chevallier, 2012. "Cointegration between carbon spot and futures prices: from linear to nonlinear modeling," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 160-181.
    23. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Smeaton, Alan F., 2016. "Influences from the European Parliament on EU emissions prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 561-572.
    24. Zeng, Shihong & Nan, Xin & Liu, Chao & Chen, Jiuying, 2017. "The response of the Beijing carbon emissions allowance price (BJC) to macroeconomic and energy price indices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 111-121.
    25. Ming, Lei & Yang, Shenggang & Cheng, Cheng, 2016. "The double nature of the price of gold—A quantitative analysis based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 125-131.
    26. E, Jianwei & Bao, Yanling & Ye, Jimin, 2017. "Crude oil price analysis and forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and independent component analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 484(C), pages 412-427.
    27. Koch, Nicolas & Fuss, Sabine & Grosjean, Godefroy & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2014. "Causes of the EU ETS price drop: Recession, CDM, renewable policies or a bit of everything?—New evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 676-685.
    28. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "An empirical analysis of energy cost pass-through to CO2 emission prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 149-156.
    29. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4210 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Bangzhu Zhu & Ping Wang & Julien Chevallier & Yiming Wei, 2015. "Carbon Price Analysis Using Empirical Mode Decomposition," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 195-206, February.
    31. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
    32. Xian, Lu & He, Kaijian & Lai, Kin Keung, 2016. "Gold price analysis based on ensemble empirical model decomposition and independent component analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 454(C), pages 11-23.
    33. G. Grosjean & W. Acworth & C. Flachsland & R. Marschinski, 2016. "After monetary policy, climate policy: is delegation the key to EU ETS reform?," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-25, January.
    34. Thijs Benschopa & Brenda López Cabrera, 2014. "Volatility Modelling of CO2 Emission Allowance Spot Prices with Regime-Switching GARCH Models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2014-050, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    35. Zhang, Ningning & Lin, Aijing & Shang, Pengjian, 2017. "Multidimensional k-nearest neighbor model based on EEMD for financial time series forecasting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 477(C), pages 161-173.
    36. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7936 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. He, Yongxiu & Wang, Bing & Wang, Jianhui & Xiong, Wei & Xia, Tian, 2013. "Correlation between Chinese and international energy prices based on a HP filter and time difference analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 898-909.
    38. Fell, Harrison, 2016. "Comparing policies to confront permit over-allocation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 53-68.
    39. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2015. "The multivariate Beveridge–Nelson decomposition with I(1) and I(2) series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 157-162.
    40. Carlos J. Pereira Freitas & Patrícia Pereira Da Silva, 2013. "Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices - a cointegrated VECM analysis," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1/2), pages 65-85.
    41. Xu, Mengjia & Shang, Pengjian & Lin, Aijing, 2016. "Cross-correlation analysis of stock markets using EMD and EEMD," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 82-90.
    42. Denny Ellerman & Vanessa Valero & Aleksandar Zaklan, 2015. "An Analysis of Allowance Banking in the EU ETS," RSCAS Working Papers 2015/29, European University Institute.
    43. Aatola, Piia & Ollikainen, Markku & Toppinen, Anne, 2013. "Price determination in the EU ETS market: Theory and econometric analysis with market fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 380-395.
    44. Perino, Grischa & Willner, Maximilian, 2016. "Procrastinating reform: The impact of the market stability reserve on the EU ETS," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 37-52.
    45. Segnon, Mawuli & Lux, Thomas & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Modeling and forecasting the volatility of carbon dioxide emission allowance prices: A review and comparison of modern volatility models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 692-704.
    46. Brandon Chen & Jonathan J. Reeves, 2012. "Dynamic asset beta measurement," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(19), pages 1655-1664, October.
    47. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    48. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.
    49. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Thuraisamy, Kannan S., 2013. "Common trends and common cycles in stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 472-476.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jin, Gui & Shi, Xin & Zhang, Lei & Hu, Shougeng, 2020. "Measuring the SCCs of different Chinese regions under future scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2020. "Does oil price have similar effects on the exchange rates of BRICS?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Friedrich, Marina & Mauer, Eva-Maria & Pahle, Michael & Tietjen, Oliver, 2020. "From fundamentals to financial assets: the evolution of understanding price formation in the EU ETS," EconStor Preprints 196150, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Cretí, Anna & Joëts, Marc, 2017. "Multiple bubbles in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 119-130.
    3. Zhu, Bangzhu & Ye, Shunxin & Han, Dong & Wang, Ping & He, Kaijian & Wei, Yi-Ming & Xie, Rui, 2019. "A multiscale analysis for carbon price drivers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 202-216.
    4. Dai, Xingyu & Xiao, Ling & Wang, Qunwei & Dhesi, Gurjeet, 2021. "Multiscale interplay of higher-order moments between the carbon and energy markets during Phase III of the EU ETS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    5. Fang, Sheng & Lu, Xinsheng & Li, Jianfeng & Qu, Ling, 2018. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis of carbon emission allowance and stock returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 551-566.
    6. Segnon, Mawuli & Lux, Thomas & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Modeling and forecasting the volatility of carbon dioxide emission allowance prices: A review and comparison of modern volatility models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 692-704.
    7. Wenjun Chu & Shanglei Chai & Xi Chen & Mo Du, 2020. "Does the Impact of Carbon Price Determinants Change with the Different Quantiles of Carbon Prices? Evidence from China ETS Pilots," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(14), pages 1-19, July.
    8. Tan, Xue-Ping & Wang, Xin-Yu, 2017. "Dependence changes between the carbon price and its fundamentals: A quantile regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 306-325.
    9. Quemin, Simon & Trotignon, Raphaël, 2021. "Emissions trading with rolling horizons," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    10. Chang, Kai & Chen, Rongda & Chevallier, Julien, 2018. "Market fragmentation, liquidity measures and improvement perspectives from China's emissions trading scheme pilots," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 249-260.
    11. Zhu, Bangzhu & Han, Dong & Chevallier, Julien & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2017. "Dynamic multiscale interactions between European carbon and electricity markets during 2005–2016," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 309-322.
    12. Zhao, Xin & Han, Meng & Ding, Lili & Kang, Wanglin, 2018. "Usefulness of economic and energy data at different frequencies for carbon price forecasting in the EU ETS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 132-141.
    13. Duan, Kun & Ren, Xiaohang & Shi, Yukun & Mishra, Tapas & Yan, Cheng, 2021. "The marginal impacts of energy prices on carbon price variations: Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    14. Batten, Jonathan A. & Maddox, Grace E. & Young, Martin R., 2021. "Does weather, or energy prices, affect carbon prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    15. Federico Galán-Valdivieso & Elena Villar-Rubio & María-Dolores Huete-Morales, 2018. "The erratic behaviour of the EU ETS on the path towards consolidation and price stability," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 689-706, October.
    16. Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Pigorsch, Uta & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2013. "Nonlinearity in cap-and-trade systems: The EUA price and its fundamentals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 222-232.
    17. Zhu, Bangzhu & Yuan, Lili & Ye, Shunxin, 2019. "Examining the multi-timescales of European carbon market with grey relational analysis and empirical mode decomposition," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 392-399.
    18. Fang Zhang & Zhengjun Zhang, 2020. "The tail dependence of the carbon markets: The implication of portfolio management," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-17, August.
    19. Hintermann, Beat & Peterson, Sonja & Rickels, Wilfried, 2014. "Price and market behavior in Phase II of the EU ETS," Kiel Working Papers 1962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    20. Tan, Xueping & Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wang, Xinyu, 2020. "How connected is the carbon market to energy and financial markets? A systematic analysis of spillovers and dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:139:y:2019:i:c:p:1-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.