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Nonlinearities in carbon spot-futures price relationships during Phase II of the EU ETS

  • Arouri, Mohamed El Hédi
  • Jawadi, Fredj
  • Nguyen, Duc Khuong

This paper uses the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the Switching Transition Regression-Exponential GARCH models (STR-EGARCH) to examine the dynamic relationships between the EU Emission Allowances (EUA) spot and futures prices during Phase II. Compared to the majority of previous studies, our empirical approach allows us to simultaneously capture asymmetry and nonlinearity effects in both return and volatility processes of carbon allowance prices. Our main findings show that carbon spot and futures returns are asymmetrically and nonlinearly linked, suggesting the usefulness of nonlinear models in pricing and forecasting carbon allowances prices.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 29 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 884-892

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:3:p:884-892
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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  1. Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-84, November.
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  7. Hintermann, Beat, 2010. "Allowance price drivers in the first phase of the EU ETS," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-56, January.
  8. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  9. Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
  10. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  11. Peter Boswijk & Cars H. Hommes & Sebastiano Manzan, 2005. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-052/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  12. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Neele, J. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 1998. "Forecasting volatility with switching persistence GARCH models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9819, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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