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Nonlinearities in carbon spot-futures price relationships during Phase II of the EU ETS

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed El Hedi Arouri

    () (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Fredj Jawadi

    ()

  • Duc Khuong Nguyen

Abstract

This paper uses the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the Switching Transition Regression-Exponential GARCH models (STR-EGARCH) to examine the dynamic relationships between the EU Emission Allowances (EUA) spot and futures prices during Phase II. Compared to the majority of previous studies, our empirical approach allows us to simultaneously capture asymmetry and nonlinearity effects in both return and volatility processes of carbon allowance prices. Our main findings show that carbon spot and futures returns are asymmetrically and nonlinearly linked, suggesting the usefulness of nonlinear models in pricing and forecasting carbon allowances prices.
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Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Fredj Jawadi & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2012. "Nonlinearities in carbon spot-futures price relationships during Phase II of the EU ETS," Post-Print hal-01410551, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01410551
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-univ-paris10.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01410551
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:213-223 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2016. "Risk spillovers across the energy and carbon markets and hedging strategies for carbon risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 159-172.
    3. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2014. "Energy prices and CO2 emission allowance prices: A quantile regression approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 201-206.
    4. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-552 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Koch, Nicolas & Fuss, Sabine & Grosjean, Godefroy & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2014. "Causes of the EU ETS price drop: Recession, CDM, renewable policies or a bit of everything?—New evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 676-685.
    6. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Amine Lahiani & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "Asymmetric and nonlinear passthrough of energy prices to CO2 emission allowance prices," Working Papers 2014-82, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    7. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-082 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:tefoso:v:139:y:2019:i:c:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Bangzhu Zhu & Ping Wang & Julien Chevallier & Yiming Wei, 2015. "Carbon Price Analysis Using Empirical Mode Decomposition," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 195-206, February.
    10. repec:eee:phsmap:v:509:y:2018:i:c:p:551-566 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Palzer, Andreas & Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Evaluation of different hedging strategies for commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 143-160.
    12. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2015. "Is carbon emissions trading profitable?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 84-92.
    13. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2016. "Modeling persistence of carbon emission allowance prices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 221-226.
    14. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "What explains the short," Working Papers 2014-81, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    15. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2014. "What explain the short-term dynamics of the prices of CO2 emissions?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 122-135.
    16. Tan, Xue-Ping & Wang, Xin-Yu, 2017. "Dependence changes between the carbon price and its fundamentals: A quantile regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 306-325.
    17. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-081 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Segnon, Mawuli & Lux, Thomas & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Modeling and forecasting the volatility of carbon dioxide emission allowance prices: A review and comparison of modern volatility models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 692-704.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

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