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Energy prices and CO2 emission allowance prices: A quantile regression approach

  • Shawkat Hammoudeh
  • Duc Khuong Nguyen
  • Ricardo M. Sousa

We use a quantile regression framework to investigate the impact of changes in crude oil pric- es, natural gas prices, coal prices, and electricity prices on the distribution of the CO2 emis- sion allowance prices in the United States. We find that: (i) an increase in the crude oil price generates a substantial drop in the carbon prices when the latter is very high; (ii) changes in the natural gas prices have a negative effect on the carbon prices when they are very low but have a positive effect when they are quite high; (iii) the impact of the changes in the electrici- ty prices on the carbon prices can be positive in the right tail of the distribution; and (iv) the coal prices exert a negative effect on the carbon prices.

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Paper provided by Department of Research, Ipag Business School in its series Working Papers with number 2014-185.

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Length: 12 pages
Date of creation: 25 Feb 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-185
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Web page: http://www.ipag.fr

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  1. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2013. "Quantile models with endogeneity," CeMMAP working papers CWP25/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  2. Kim, Hyun Seok & Koo, Won W., 2010. "Factors affecting the carbon allowance market in the US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1879-1884, April.
  3. Hintermann, Beat, 2010. "Allowance price drivers in the first phase of the EU ETS," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-56, January.
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  8. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  9. Arouri, Mohamed El Hédi & Jawadi, Fredj & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Nonlinearities in carbon spot-futures price relationships during Phase II of the EU ETS," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 884-892.
  10. Daskalakis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Modeling CO2 emission allowance prices and derivatives: Evidence from the European trading scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1230-1241, July.
  11. Machado, Jose A. F. & Silva, J. M. C. Santos, 2000. "Glejser's test revisited," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 189-202, July.
  12. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  13. Chevallier, Julien, 2012. "Time-varying correlations in oil, gas and CO2 prices: an application using BEKK, CCC, and DCC-MGARCH models," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6790, Paris Dauphine University.
  14. Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
  15. Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
  16. Chevallier, Julien, 2010. "Modelling risk premia in CO2 allowances spot and futures prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 717-729, May.
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