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Energy prices and CO2 emission allowance prices: A quantile regression approach

  • Shawkat Hammoudeh
  • Duc Khuong Nguyen
  • Ricardo M. Sousa

We use a quantile regression framework to investigate the impact of changes in crude oil pric- es, natural gas prices, coal prices, and electricity prices on the distribution of the CO2 emis- sion allowance prices in the United States. We find that: (i) an increase in the crude oil price generates a substantial drop in the carbon prices when the latter is very high; (ii) changes in the natural gas prices have a negative effect on the carbon prices when they are very low but have a positive effect when they are quite high; (iii) the impact of the changes in the electrici- ty prices on the carbon prices can be positive in the right tail of the distribution; and (iv) the coal prices exert a negative effect on the carbon prices.

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Paper provided by Department of Research, Ipag Business School in its series Working Papers with number 2014-185.

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Length: 12 pages
Date of creation: 25 Feb 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipg:wpaper:2014-185
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  1. Julien Chevallier, 2010. "A Note on Cointegrating and Vector Autoregressive Relationships between CO2 allowances spot and futures prices," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1564-1584.
  2. Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
  3. V. Chernozhukov & C. Hansen, 2013. "Quantile Models with Endogeneity," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 57-81, 05.
  4. Beat Hintermann, 2009. "Allowance Price Drivers in the First Phase of the EU ETS," CEPE Working paper series 09-63, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
  5. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2002. "Inference on the Quantile Regression Process," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1583-1612, July.
  6. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
  7. Daskalakis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Markellos, Raphael N., 2009. "Modeling CO2 emission allowance prices and derivatives: Evidence from the European trading scheme," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1230-1241, July.
  8. Julien Chevallier, 2012. "Time-varying correlations in oil, gas and CO 2 prices: an application using BEKK, CCC and DCC-MGARCH models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(32), pages 4257-4274, November.
  9. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall.
  10. Benz, Eva & Trück, Stefan, 2009. "Modeling the price dynamics of CO2 emission allowances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 4-15, January.
  11. Chevallier, Julien, 2010. "Modelling risk premia in CO2 allowances spot and futures prices," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/4227, Paris Dauphine University.
  12. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  13. James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  14. Machado, Jose A. F. & Silva, J. M. C. Santos, 2000. "Glejser's test revisited," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 189-202, July.
  15. Kim, Hyun Seok & Koo, Won W., 2010. "Factors affecting the carbon allowance market in the US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1879-1884, April.
  16. Arouri, Mohamed El Hédi & Jawadi, Fredj & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Nonlinearities in carbon spot-futures price relationships during Phase II of the EU ETS," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 884-892.
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