IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cesptp/hal-00649923.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

European Carbon Prices and Banking Restrictions: Evidence from Phase I (2005-2007)

Author

Listed:
  • Emilie Alberola

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Julien Chevallier

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The price of European Union Allowances (EUAs) has been declining at far lower levels than expected during Phase I (2005-2007). Previous literature identifies among its main explanations over-allocation concerns, early abatement efforts in 2005, and possibly decreasing abatement costs in 2006. We advocate low allowance prices may also be explained by banking restrictions between 2007 and 2008. Based on a Hotelling-CAPM analysis, we provide statistical evidence that the French and Polish decisions to ban banking contribute to the explanation of low EUA Phase I prices. Besides, we provide the first rigorous empirical verification that the cost-of-carry relationship between EUA spot and futures prices for delivery during Phase II does not hold after the enforcement of the inter-period banking restrictions. This situation may be interpreted as a sacrifice of the temporal flexibility offered to industrials in Phase I to correct design inefficiencies, and achieve an efficient price pattern in Phase II.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilie Alberola & Julien Chevallier, 2009. "European Carbon Prices and Banking Restrictions: Evidence from Phase I (2005-2007)," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00649923, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-00649923
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    2. Kling, Catherine & Rubin, Jonathan, 1997. "Bankable permits for the control of environmental pollution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 101-115, April.
    3. Schleich, Joachim & Ehrhart, Karl-Martin & Hoppe, Christian & Seifert, Stefan, 2006. "Banning banking in EU emissions trading?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-120, January.
    4. Michael Grubb & Karsten Neuhoff, 2006. "Allocation and competitiveness in the EU emissions trading scheme: policy overview," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 7-30, January.
    5. Cason, Timothy N. & Gangadharan, Lata, 2006. "Emissions variability in tradable permit markets with imperfect enforcement and banking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 199-216, October.
    6. Paul Leiby & Jonathan Rubin, 2001. "Intertemporal Permit Trading for the Control of Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 19(3), pages 229-256, July.
    7. Lata Gangadharan & Timothy N. Cason, 2004. "Correlated Emissions Variability in Tradable Permit Markets with Imperfect Enforcement," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 103, Econometric Society.
    8. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    9. Ellerman,A. Denny & Joskow,Paul L. & Schmalensee,Richard & Montero,Juan-Pablo & Bailey,Elizabeth M., 2005. "Markets for Clean Air," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023894, September.
      • Ellerman,A. Denny & Joskow,Paul L. & Schmalensee,Richard & Montero,Juan-Pablo & Bailey,Elizabeth M., 2000. "Markets for Clean Air," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521660839, September.
    10. Perron, P, 1993. "Erratum [The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis]," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 248-249, January.
    11. Junsoo Lee & Mark Strazicich, 2001. "Testing the null of stationarity in the presence of a structural break," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 377-382.
    12. Pindyck, Robert S, 1993. "The Present Value Model of Rational Commodity Pricing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(418), pages 511-530, May.
    13. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 1997. "Hotelling Confronts CAPM: A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 685-708, August.
    14. Juan-Pablo Montero, 2002. "The Temporal Efficiency of SO2 Emissions Trading," Documentos de Trabajo 225, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    15. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    16. Matti Liski & Juan-Pablo Montero, 2006. "On Pollution Permit Banking and Market Power," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 283-302, May.
    17. Tobias Kronenberg, 2008. "Should We Worry About The Failure Of The Hotelling Rule?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 774-793, September.
    18. A. Denny Ellerman & Juan-Pablo Montero, 2007. "The Efficiency and Robustness of Allowance Banking in the U.S. Acid Rain Program," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 47-72.
    19. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    20. Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Angel Pardo & Enric Valor, 2007. "CO2 Prices, Energy and Weather," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-92.
    21. Godby, Robert W. & Mestelman, Stuart & Muller, R. Andrew & Welland, J. Douglas, 1997. "Emissions Trading with Shares and Coupons when Control over Discharges Is Uncertain," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 359-381, March.
    22. Ehrhart, Karl-Martin & Hoppe, Christian & Schleich, Joachim & Seifert, Stefan, 2004. "The role of auctions and forward markets in the EU," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-59, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    23. Karl-Martin Ehrhart & Christian Hoppe & Joachim Schleich & Stefan Seifert, 2005. "The role of auctions and forward markets in the EU ETS: counterbalancing the cost-inefficiencies of combining generous allocation with a ban on banking," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 31-46, January.
    24. Rubin, Jonathan D., 1996. "A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 269-286, November.
    25. Akira Maeda, 2004. "Impact of banking and forward contracts on tradable permit markets," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 6(2), pages 81-102, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emilie Alberola & Julien Chevallier, 2007. "European carbon prices and banking restrictions: evidence from phase I (2005-2007)," Working Papers hal-04139202, HAL.
    2. Julien Chevallier, 2012. "Banking And Borrowing In The Eu Ets: A Review Of Economic Modelling, Current Provisions And Prospects For Future Design," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 157-176, February.
    3. Julien Chevallier & Emilie Alberola, 2009. "Banking and Borrowing in the EU ETS: An Econometric Appraisal of the 2005-2007 Intertemporal Market," Working Papers halshs-00388071, HAL.
    4. Benjamin Leard, 2013. "The Welfare Effects of Allowance Banking in Emissions Trading Programs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 175-197, June.
    5. Li, Shoude, 2013. "Emission permit banking, pollution abatement and production–inventory control of the firm," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 679-685.
    6. Boutabba, Mohamed Amine & Beaumais, Olivier & Lardic, Sandrine, 2012. "Permit price dynamics in the U.S. SO2 trading program: A cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 714-722.
    7. Julien Chevallier, 2007. "A differential game of intertemporal emissions trading with market power," Working Papers hal-04139220, HAL.
    8. Akira Maeda, 2004. "Impact of banking and forward contracts on tradable permit markets," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 6(2), pages 81-102, June.
    9. Quemin, Simon & Trotignon, Raphaël, 2021. "Emissions trading with rolling horizons," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    10. Julien Chevallier & Benoît Sévi, 2014. "On the Stochastic Properties of Carbon Futures Prices," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(1), pages 127-153, May.
    11. Stranlund, John K. & Murphy, James J. & Spraggon, John M., 2011. "An experimental analysis of compliance in dynamic emissions markets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 414-429.
    12. Lata Gangadharan & Rachel Croson & Alex Farrell, 2013. "Investment decisions and emissions reductions: results from experiments in emissions trading," Chapters, in: John A. List & Michael K. Price (ed.), Handbook on Experimental Economics and the Environment, chapter 8, pages 233-264, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Jiang, Minxing & Zhu, Bangzhu & Wei, Yi-Ming & Chevallier, Julien & He, Kaijian, 2018. "An intertemporal carbon emissions trading system with cap adjustment and path control," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 152-161.
    14. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4228 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Matti Liski & Juan‐Pablo Montero, 2011. "Market Power in an Exhaustible Resource Market: The Case of Storable Pollution Permits," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 116-144, March.
    16. Lambie, Neil Ross, 2010. "Understanding the effect of an emissions trading scheme on electricity generator investment and retirement behaviour: the proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(2), pages 1-15.
    17. Akira Maeda, 2004. "Impact of banking and forward contracts on tradable permit markets," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 6(2), pages 81-102, June.
    18. Julien Chevallier, 2013. "Carbon trading: past, present and future," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 21, pages 471-489, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Kondoz, Mehmet & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Athari, Seyed Alireza, 2021. "Time-frequency dependencies of financial and economic risks in South American countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 170-181.
    20. Juan-Pablo Montero, 2002. "The Temporal Efficiency of SO2 Emissions Trading," Documentos de Trabajo 225, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    21. Julien Chevallier, 2008. "Strategic Manipulation on Emissions Trading Banking Program with Fixed Horizon," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 17(14), pages 1-9.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-00649923. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.