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Projecting short to medium-term effects of carbon emissions trading on Serbia's GDP

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  • Pavlović, B.
  • Trtica, N.

Abstract

This paper presents an approach to assess the short to medium-term effects of the Emissions Trading System (ETS), an economic and climate policy instrument aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on GDP from the expenditure side. The analysis focuses on Serbia's electricity sector, which relies heavily on lignite-based production dominated by state-owned enterprises. The obtained projections suggest that in the short term, the introduction of an ETS may lead to slower GDP growth compared to official forecasts. However, by 2030, accelerated growth is observed, eventually converging with and even surpassing the projected growth in scenarios characterized by higher investments.

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  • Pavlović, B. & Trtica, N., 2024. "Projecting short to medium-term effects of carbon emissions trading on Serbia's GDP," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:91:y:2024:i:c:s0957178724001498
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101855
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    1. Ćosić, Boris & Ban, Marko & Duić, Neven, 2025. "Impact of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on Electricity Trade with Energy Community Contracting Parties," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

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