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The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe's Carbon Taxes

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  • Gilbert E. Metcalf
  • James H. Stock

Abstract

We estimate the macroeconomic impacts of carbon taxes on GDP and employment growth rates using 30 years of data on carbon taxation in various European countries. We find no evidence for a negative impact on employment or GDP growth but rather find a zero to modest positive impact. We also find a cumulative emissions reduction on the order of 4 to 6 percent for a $40/ton CO2 tax covering 30 percent of emissions. Reductions would likely be greater for a broad-based US carbon tax since European carbon taxes typically do not cover those sectors with the lowest marginal abatement costs.

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  • Gilbert E. Metcalf & James H. Stock, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe's Carbon Taxes," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 265-286, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:15:y:2023:i:3:p:265-86
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210052
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    Cited by:

    1. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Richhild Moessner & Elod Takáts, 2021. "Effects of Carbon Pricing and Other Climate Policies on CO2 Emissions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9347, CESifo.
    2. Herwig Immervoll & Cathal O’Donoghue & Jules Linden & Denisa Sologon, 2023. "Who pays for higher carbon prices?: Illustration for Lithuania and a research agenda," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 283, OECD Publishing.
    3. Candelon, Bertrand & Hasse, Jean-Baptiste, 2023. "Testing for causality between climate policies and carbon emissions reduction," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    4. Leroutier, Marion, 2022. "Carbon pricing and power sector decarbonization: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    5. Felix Pretis, 2022. "Does a Carbon Tax Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from British Columbia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(1), pages 115-144, September.
    6. Arampatzidis, Ioannis & Dergiades, Theologos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2021. "Oil and the U.S. stock market: Implications for low carbon policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. Alan Finkelstein Shapiro & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Effects of a Carbon Tax to Meet the U.S. Paris Agreement Target: The Role of Firm Creation and Technology Adoption," NBER Working Papers 28795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Marion Leroutier, 2021. "Carbon Pricing and Power Sector Decarbonisation: Evidence from the UK," Working Papers halshs-03265636, HAL.
    9. Ivan Faiella & Luciano Lavecchia, 2021. "Households' energy demand and the effects of carbon pricing in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 614, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Richhild Moessner & Előd Takáts, 2021. "Growth, coal and carbon emissions: economic overheating and climate change," BIS Working Papers 937, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Hee Soo (test record) Kim & Christian Matthes & Toan Phan, 2011. "Extreme Weather and the Macroeconomy," Working Paper 21-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    12. Jannik Hensel & Giacomo Mangiante & Luca Moretti, 2023. "Carbon pricing and inflation expectations: evidence from France," ECON - Working Papers 434, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    13. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax to meet the U.S. Paris agreement target: The role of firm creation and technology adoption," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    14. Marion Leroutier, 2021. "Carbon Pricing and Power Sector Decarbonisation: Evidence from the UK," CIRED Working Papers halshs-03265636, HAL.
    15. Bustamante, Maria Cecilia & Zucchi, Francesca, 2024. "Dynamic carbon emission management," Working Paper Series 2885, European Central Bank.
    16. Martinsson, Gustav & Sajtos, László & Strömberg, Per & Thomann, Christian, 2022. "Carbon Pricing and Firm-Level CO2 Abatement: Evidence from a Quarter of a Century-Long Panel," Misum Working Paper Series 2022-10, Stockholm School of Economics, Mistra Center for Sustainable Markets (Misum).
    17. Jannik Hensel & Giacomo Mangiante & Luca Moretti, 2023. "Carbon Pricing and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from France," CESifo Working Paper Series 10552, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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