IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v142y2025ics014098832400848x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Winners and losers of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism. An intra-EU issue?

Author

Listed:
  • Amendola, Marco

Abstract

The paper develops a Multi-Regional Input–Output analytical framework to study the EU’s recently adopted carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). This policy introduces carbon tariffs to replace free allowances in several Emission Trading System (ETS) industries to reinforce and extend the EU carbon price signal while mitigating the risk of carbon leakage. Yet, the policy has prompted immediate international equity concerns, particularly regarding its potential burden-shifting effect, especially on low-income countries. In this context, the analysis provides a comprehensive examination of the distributional impacts of the EU CBAM, shedding light on the countries and industries most affected by the policy. Contrary to the apprehensions, the findings indicate limited evidence of burden shifting, with such a phenomenon being confined to a few specific geographical areas and industries. Instead, the results unveil more pronounced redistributive impacts within the EU, with certain Eastern EU countries facing particular losses from replacing free allowances with CBAM. Adverse competitiveness effects and carbon leakage in various downstream industries are also identified.

Suggested Citation

  • Amendola, Marco, 2025. "Winners and losers of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism. An intra-EU issue?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:142:y:2025:i:c:s014098832400848x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108139
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014098832400848X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108139?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Overland, Indra & Sabyrbekov, Rahat, 2022. "Know your opponent: Which countries might fight the European carbon border adjustment mechanism?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Christoph Böhringer & Jared C. Carbone & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2018. "Embodied Carbon Tariffs," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 120(1), pages 183-210, January.
    3. World Bank, "undated". "State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2023," World Bank Publications - Reports 39796, The World Bank Group.
    4. Florian Misch & Mr. Philippe Wingender, 2021. "Revisiting Carbon Leakage," IMF Working Papers 2021/207, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Guilherme Magacho & Etienne Espagne & Antoine Godin, 2024. "Impacts of the CBAM on EU trade partners: consequences for developing countries," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 243-259, February.
    6. Perdana, Sigit & Vielle, Marc, 2022. "Making the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism acceptable and climate friendly for least developed countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    7. Böhringer, Christoph & Bye, Brita & Fæhn, Taran & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2012. "Alternative designs for tariffs on embodied carbon: A global cost-effectiveness analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages 143-153.
    8. repec:old:wpaper:345 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Christoph Böhringer & André Müller & Jan Schneider, 2015. "Carbon Tariffs Revisited," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(4), pages 629-672.
    10. Konstantin Stadler & Richard Wood & Tatyana Bulavskaya & Carl†Johan Södersten & Moana Simas & Sarah Schmidt & Arkaitz Usubiaga & José Acosta†Fernández & Jeroen Kuenen & Martin Bruckner & Stefan, 2018. "EXIOBASE 3: Developing a Time Series of Detailed Environmentally Extended Multi†Regional Input†Output Tables," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 22(3), pages 502-515, June.
    11. Edward J. Balistreri & Daniel T. Kaffine & Hidemichi Yonezawa, 2019. "Optimal Environmental Border Adjustments Under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(3), pages 1037-1075, November.
    12. Michael Keen & Ian Parry & James Roaf, 2022. "Border carbon adjustments: rationale, design and impact," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(3), pages 209-234, September.
    13. Lionel Fontagné & Katheline Schubert, 2023. "The Economics of Border Carbon Adjustment: Rationale and Impacts of Compensating for Carbon at the Border," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 15(1), pages 389-424, September.
    14. Jiarui Zhong & Jiansuo Pei, 2024. "Carbon border adjustment mechanism: a systematic literature review of the latest developments," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 228-242, February.
    15. Clora, Francesco & Yu, Wusheng & Corong, Erwin, 2023. "Alternative carbon border adjustment mechanisms in the European Union and international responses: Aggregate and within-coalition results," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    16. Frédéric Branger, Philippe Quirion, Julien Chevallier, 2017. "Carbon Leakage and Competitiveness of Cement and Steel Industries Under the EU ETS: Much Ado About Nothing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    17. Eugénie Joltreau & Katrin Sommerfeld, 2019. "Why does emissions trading under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) not affect firms’ competitiveness? Empirical findings from the literature," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 453-471, April.
    18. Ward, Hauke & Steckel, Jan Christoph & Jakob, Michael, 2019. "How global climate policy could affect competitiveness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(S1).
    19. Naegele, Helene & Zaklan, Aleksandar, 2019. "Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 125-147.
    20. Pietzcker, Robert C. & Osorio, Sebastian & Rodrigues, Renato, 2021. "Tightening EU ETS targets in line with the European Green Deal: Impacts on the decarbonization of the EU power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    21. repec:zbw:hohpro:345 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Jean Chateau & Romain Duval, 2013. "Is there a case for carbon-based border tax adjustment? An applied general equilibrium analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2231-2240, June.
    23. Sarah Davidson Ladly, 2012. "Border carbon adjustments, WTO-law and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 63-84, March.
    24. Christoph Böhringer & Carolyn Fischer & Knut Einar Rosendahl & Thomas Fox Rutherford, 2022. "Author Correction: Potential impacts and challenges of border carbon adjustments," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(4), pages 408-408, April.
    25. Bellora, Cecilia & Fontagné, Lionel, 2023. "EU in search of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    26. Brandi, Clara, 2021. "Priorities for a development-friendly EU Carbon Border Adjustment (CBAM)," Briefing Papers 20/2021, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    27. Hoel, Michael, 1991. "Global environmental problems: The effects of unilateral actions taken by one country," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 55-70, January.
    28. Ghosh, Madanmohan & Luo, Deming & Siddiqui, Muhammad Shahid & Zhu, Yunfa, 2012. "Border tax adjustments in the climate policy context: CO2 versus broad-based GHG emission targeting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages 154-167.
    29. Böhringer, Christoph & Balistreri, Edward J. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2012. "The role of border carbon adjustment in unilateral climate policy: Overview of an Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF 29)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages 97-110.
    30. World Bank, "undated". "State and Trends of Carbon Pricing," World Bank Publications - Reports 40700, The World Bank Group.
    31. Felder Stefan & Rutherford Thomas F., 1993. "Unilateral CO2 Reductions and Carbon Leakage: The Consequences of International Trade in Oil and Basic Materials," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 162-176, September.
    32. Lanzi, Elisa & Chateau, Jean & Dellink, Rob, 2012. "Alternative approaches for levelling carbon prices in a world with fragmented carbon markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages 240-250.
    33. Joshua Elliott & Ian Foster & Samuel Kortum & Todd Munson & Fernando Pérez Cervantes & David Weisbach, 2010. "Trade and Carbon Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 465-469, May.
    34. Maksym Chepeliev, 2021. "Possible Implications of the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism for Ukraine and Other EU Trading Partners," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-6.
    35. Branger, Frédéric & Quirion, Philippe, 2014. "Would border carbon adjustments prevent carbon leakage and heavy industry competitiveness losses? Insights from a meta-analysis of recent economic studies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 29-39.
    36. Tarr, David G. & Kuznetsov, Dmitrii E. & Overland, Indra & Vakulchuk, Roman, 2023. "Why carbon border adjustment mechanisms will not save the planet but a climate club and subsidies for transformative green technologies may," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    37. Jared C. Carbone & Nicholas Rivers, 2017. "The Impacts of Unilateral Climate Policy on Competitiveness: Evidence From Computable General Equilibrium Models," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(1), pages 24-42.
    38. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-04331408 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Stefano F. Verde, 2020. "The Impact Of The Eu Emissions Trading System On Competitiveness And Carbon Leakage: The Econometric Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 320-343, April.
    40. Aaron Cosbey & Susanne Droege & Carolyn Fischer & Clayton Munnings, 2019. "Developing Guidance for Implementing Border Carbon Adjustments: Lessons, Cautions, and Research Needs from the Literature," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(1), pages 3-22.
    41. Pietzcker, Robert & Osorio, Sebastian & Rodrigues, Renato, 2021. "Tightening EU ETS targets in line with the European Green Deal: Impacts on the decarbonization of the EU power sector," EconStor Preprints 222579, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, revised 2021.
    42. Christoph Böhringer & Jan Schneider & Emmanuel Asane-Otoo, 2021. "Trade in Carbon and Carbon Tariffs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(4), pages 669-708, April.
    43. Angel Aguiar & Maksym Chepeliev & Erwin L. Corong & Robert McDougall & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2019. "The GTAP Data Base: Version 10," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hongbo Sun & Xinting Zhang & Cuicui Luo, 2025. "A Review of Carbon Pricing Mechanisms and Risk Management for Raw Materials in Low-Carbon Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-17, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Perdana, Sigit & Vielle, Marc, 2022. "Making the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism acceptable and climate friendly for least developed countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    2. Chen, Zhe-Yi & Zhao, Lu-Tao & Cheng, Lei & Qiu, Rui-Xiang, 2025. "How does China respond to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism? An approach of global trade analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    3. Aliénor Cameron & Marc Baudry, 2023. "The case for carbon leakage and border adjustments: where do economists stand?," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(3), pages 435-469, July.
    4. Zhong, Jiarui & Pei, Jiansuo, 2022. "Beggar thy neighbor? On the competitiveness and welfare impacts of the EU's proposed carbon border adjustment mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    5. Bellora, Cecilia & Fontagné, Lionel, 2023. "EU in search of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    6. Marc Baudry & Alienor Cameron, 2022. "The case for a Carbon Border Adjustment: Where do economists stand?," Working Papers hal-04159819, HAL.
    7. Jia, Zhijie & Wu, Rongxin & Liu, Yu & Wen, Shiyan & Lin, Boqiang, 2024. "Can carbon tariffs based on domestic embedded carbon emissions reduce more carbon leakages?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    8. Jebeli, Hossein & Chen, Y.-H. Henry & Johnston, Craig & Paltsev, Sergey & Tremblay, Marie-Christine, 2025. "Impacts of border carbon adjustments on the Canadian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    9. Beck, Ulrik R. & Kruse-Andersen, Peter K. & Stewart, Louis B., 2023. "Carbon leakage in a small open economy: The importance of international climate policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    10. Jakob, Michael, 2021. "Climate policy and international trade – A critical appraisal of the literature," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    11. Christoph Böhringer & Jan Schneider & Emmanuel Asane-Otoo, 2021. "Trade in Carbon and Carbon Tariffs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(4), pages 669-708, April.
    12. Ambec, Stefan & Esposito, Federico & Pacelli, Antonia, 2024. "The economics of carbon leakage mitigation policies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Clora, Francesco & Yu, Wusheng & Corong, Erwin, 2023. "Alternative carbon border adjustment mechanisms in the European Union and international responses: Aggregate and within-coalition results," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    14. Lydgate, Emily & Winters, L. Alan, 2025. "The UK's border carbon leakage trilemma," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    15. Lin, Boqiang & Zhao, Hengsong, 2024. "Threatening the Poor? The economic impacts of carbon border adjustment mechanism on developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 582-593.
    16. Carattini, Stefano & Kim, Giseong & Melkadze, Givi & Pommeret, Aude, 2024. "Carbon taxes and tariffs, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    17. Dy, Kenneth Bicol & Yang, Han, 2025. "Global emissions and international trade: Quantifying the impact of carbon border adjustments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    18. Bellora, Cecilia, 2020. "Carbon Border Adjustment and Alternatives," Conference papers 333210, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Michael A. Mehling, 2023. "Supply-side offset crediting to manage climate policy spillover effects," Working Papers EPRG2313, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    20. Mehling, M. A., 2023. "Supply-Side Crediting to Manage Climate Policy Spillover Effects," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2345, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:142:y:2025:i:c:s014098832400848x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.