Electricity, carbon and weather in France: where do we stand ?
As a tool to fight long run changes in climate the European Union explicitly introduced the emission trading scheme (EU ETS) on January 1, 2005, which aimed at reducing carbon emission by 8% by 2012, and was designed to operate in two phases. Using data related to the first phase, this article investigates the role that the EU ETS plays in the power generation market by taking into account the existence of possible cross-spillovers between the French carbon and the French electricity spot markets, the spot prices of natural gas and of oil, and climatic conditions in France and elsewhere. Results show that there is no short run relationship between the electricity and carbon returns, while there is a long run relationship. However, this relationship suffers from a disequilibrium in that the electricity price readjust in the long run. We also find that while there are own mean and own volatility spillovers in the two markets, there are no cross own mean and own volatility spillovers, indicating that the electricity spot market and the carbon spot market are not integrated. Finally, results underline the limited impact of weather on the interconnection of these markets.
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