IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-10-00037.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

EUAs and CERs: Vector Autoregression, Impulse Response Function and Cointegration Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Julien Chevallier

    () (Université Paris Dauphine)

Abstract

EUAs are European Union Allowances traded on the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), while Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) arise from the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol. These emissions assets attract an increasing attention among brokers, investors and operators on emissions markets, because they may be both used for compliance under the EU ETS (up to fixed limits). This paper proposes a statistical analysis of the inter-relationships between EUA and CER price series, by using vector autoregression, impulse response function, and cointegration analysis on daily data from March 9, 2007 to January 14, 2010. The central results show that EUAs and CERs affect each other significantly through the vector autoregression model, and react quite rapidly to shocks on each other through the impulse response function analysis. Most importantly, both price series are found to be cointegrated, with EUAs leading the price discovery process in the long-term through the vector error correction mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Julien Chevallier, 2010. "EUAs and CERs: Vector Autoregression, Impulse Response Function and Cointegration Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 558-576.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00037
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2010/Volume30/EB-10-V30-I1-P51.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nazifi, Fatemeh, 2013. "Modelling the price spread between EUA and CER carbon prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 434-445.
    2. repec:eco:journ1:2014-03-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Schultz, Emma & Swieringa, John, 2014. "Catalysts for price discovery in the European Union Emissions Trading System," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 112-122.
    4. Ange Nsouadi & Jules Sadefo Kamdem & Michel Terraza, 2015. "Analyse temps-fréquence du co-mouvement entre le marché européen du CO2 et les autres marchés de l'énergie," Working Papers 15-08, LAMETA, Universitiy of Montpellier, revised May 2015.
    5. Mizrach, Bruce, 2012. "Integration of the global carbon markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 335-349.
    6. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
    7. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7938 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Tan, Xue-Ping & Wang, Xin-Yu, 2017. "Dependence changes between the carbon price and its fundamentals: A quantile regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 306-325.
    9. Ange Nsouadi & Jules Sadefo Kamdem & Michel Terraza, 2013. "Analyse temps-fréquence de la relation entre les prix du quota et du crédit carbone," Working Papers 13-12, LAMETA, Universitiy of Montpellier, revised Nov 2013.
    10. Vicente Medina & Angel Pardo & Roberto Pascual, 2013. "Carbon Credits: Who is the Leader of the Pack?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 210-220.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5441 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Cummins, Mark, 2013. "EU ETS market interactions: The case for multiple hypothesis testing approaches," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 701-709.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EUA; CER; Vector Autoregression; Impulse Response Function; Cointegration; Vector Error Correction Model; EU ETS; Price Discovery.;

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00037. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.