EUAs and CERs: Interactions in a Markov regime-switching environment
This paper analyzes jointly the time series of European Union Allowances (EUAs) and Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) in a Markov regime-switching environment. The purpose consists in capturing the interactions between the two time series - which have been highlighted in previous literature - with respect to the underlying business cycle. Given the recent period of economic growth and financial crisis, regime switching models appear indeed interesting to shed new light on the data. The main result of the paper features a switch from a low-growth period to a high-growth period in July 2009, in a context of timid economic recovery. Besides, the Markov regime-switching model reveals that significant interactions exist between EUAs (during expansions and recessions) and CERs (mostly during expansions). Colletively, these results could be of use to regulatory authorities, academics and financial agents (investment bankers, analysts, asset managers).
Volume (Year): 32 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mansanet-Bataller, Maria & Chevallier, Julien & Hervé-Mignucci, Morgan & Alberola, Emilie, 2011.
"EUA and sCER phase II price drivers: Unveiling the reasons for the existence of the EUA-sCER spread,"
Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1056-1069, March.
- Emilie Alberola & Maria Mansanet-Bataller & Julien Chevallier & Morgan Hervé-Mignucci, 2011. "EUA and sCER phase II price drivers: Unveiling the reasons for the existence of the EUA-sCER spread," Post-Print hal-00575614, HAL.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:558-576 is not listed on IDEAS
- Chan, Kam Fong & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon & Brooks, Robert & Gray, Stephen, 2011. "Asset market linkages: Evidence from financial, commodity and real estate assets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1415-1426, June.
- Allan Timmermann & Massimo Guidolin, 2006. "An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-22.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns," Working Papers 2005-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Julien Chevallier, 2011. "Anticipating correlations between EUAs and CERs: a Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 255-272.
- Bradley, Michael D. & Jansen, Dennis W., 2004. "Forecasting with a nonlinear dynamic model of stock returns and industrial production," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 321-342.
- Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-182, April.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/5441 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/4226 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/5109 is not listed on IDEAS Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00422. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.