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Modeling of Emission Allowance Markets: A Literature Review


  • Vincent Bertrand


This paper reviews the development of emission trading models from the earliest to recent contributions. First, we introduce the economics of pollution control and the origins of emission trading. We give a brief description of policy instruments for the control of pollution, and explain why economic instruments (Pigouvian tax and emission trading) produce better results than “command-and-control” approaches. Second, we review several papers on modeling of emission trading systems, with a focus on dynamic models in case of perfect competition. We begin with the earliest static models, investigating a number of factor that can affect the effectiveness of emission trading (e.g. market power, transaction-costs, political pressures, etc). Next, we present dynamic models of permit markets, analysing questions such as banking/borrowing, relationship between spot and future markets, exogenous factors influencing the marginal abatement cost, etc. Finally, we end the paper with recent studies that model the main features of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) in a dynamic framework with stochastic emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Bertrand, 2013. "Modeling of Emission Allowance Markets: A Literature Review," Working Papers 1304, Chaire Economie du climat.
  • Handle: RePEc:cec:wpaper:1304

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hintermann, Beat, 2010. "Allowance price drivers in the first phase of the EU ETS," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-56, January.
    2. Seifert, Jan & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese & Wagner, Michael, 2008. "Dynamic behavior of CO2 spot prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 180-194, September.
    3. Montgomery, W. David, 1972. "Markets in licenses and efficient pollution control programs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 395-418, December.
    4. Vincent Bertrand, 2012. "Understanding fuel switching under the EU ETS," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 35(6), pages 494-517.
    5. Springer, Urs, 2003. "The market for tradable GHG permits under the Kyoto Protocol: a survey of model studies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 527-551, September.
    6. Juan-Pablo Montero, 2009. "Market Power in Pollution Permit Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    7. Kling, Catherine & Rubin, Jonathan, 1997. "Bankable permits for the control of environmental pollution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 101-115, April.
    8. Stavins Robert N., 1995. "Transaction Costs and Tradeable Permits," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 133-148, September.
    9. Schennach, Susanne M., 2000. "The Economics of Pollution Permit Banking in the Context of Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 189-210, November.
    10. Luca Taschini, 2010. "Environmental Economics and Modeling Marketable Permits," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 17(4), pages 325-343, December.
    11. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
    12. Scott E. Atkinson, 1983. "Marketable Pollution Permits and Acid Rain Externalities," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 704-722, November.
    13. Cronshaw, Mark B & Brown-Kruse, Jamie, 1996. "Regulated Firms in Pollution Permit Markets with Banking," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 179-189, March.
    14. Innes, Robert, 2003. "Stochastic pollution, costly sanctions, and optimality of emission permit banking," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 546-568, May.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/12955 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Julien Chevallier, 2012. "Banking And Borrowing In The Eu Ets: A Review Of Economic Modelling, Current Provisions And Prospects For Future Design," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 157-176, February.
    17. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4611 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Rubin, Jonathan D., 1996. "A Model of Intertemporal Emission Trading, Banking, and Borrowing," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 269-286, November.
    19. Robert W. Hahn, 1984. "Market Power and Transferable Property Rights," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 753-765.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Li & Deng, Shi-Jie & Thomas, Valerie M., 2016. "Carbon emission permit price volatility reduction through financial options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 248-260.
    2. Vincent Bertrand, 2013. "Carbon and energy prices under uncertainty: A theoretical analysis of fuel switching with non-equally efficient power plants," Working Papers 1309, Chaire Economie du climat.
    3. Raphaël Trotignon & Pierre-André Jouvet & Boris Solier & Simon Quemin & Jérémy Elbeze, 2015. "European carbon market: lessons on the impact of a market stability reserve using the Zephyr model," Working Papers 1511, Chaire Economie du climat.
    4. Koch, Nicolas & Fuss, Sabine & Grosjean, Godefroy & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2014. "Causes of the EU ETS price drop: Recession, CDM, renewable policies or a bit of everything?—New evidence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 676-685.
    5. Bertrand, Vincent, 2014. "Carbon and energy prices under uncertainty: A theoretical analysis of fuel switching with heterogenous power plants," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 198-220.

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    Emission Trading; EU ETS; Partial Equilibrium Modeling;

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