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Weitzman meets Taylor: EU allowance price drivers and carbon cap rules

Author

Listed:
  • Benmir, Ghassane
  • Roman, Josselin
  • Taschini, Luca

Abstract

Using a two-sector structural model, we identify abatement, energy prices, transition demand for permits, and regulatory supply shocks as the key drivers of permit prices in the third phase of the EU Emission Trading System (ETS). Through an innovative approach, we estimate unobservable abatement shocks and quantify the contribution of each factor to carbon price variability, which we find t o b e approximately eighty times greater than it would be under an optimal carbon pricing scenario aligned with the social cost of carbon. To address this, we propose the Carbon Cap Rule (CCR) – a rule-based cap adjustment mechanism that dynamically responds to deviations in emissions and abatement costs. The CCR reduces volatility by 55% compared to the current EU ETS cap, and cuts welfare losses in consumption equivalence terms by 40%.

Suggested Citation

  • Benmir, Ghassane & Roman, Josselin & Taschini, Luca, 2025. "Weitzman meets Taylor: EU allowance price drivers and carbon cap rules," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128515, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:128515
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/128515/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU ETS; contingent permit allocation; social cost of carbon; Bayesian estimation; carbon central bank;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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