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Transition versus physical climate risk pricing in European financial markets: a text-based approach

Author

Listed:
  • Bua, Giovanna
  • Kapp, Daniel
  • Ramella, Federico
  • Rognone, Lavinia

Abstract

We examine the existence of physical and transition climate risk premia in euro areaequity markets. To do so, we develop two novel physical and transition risk indicators, basedon text analysis, which are then used to gauge the presence of climate risk premia. Resultssuggest that climate risk premia for both, transition and physical climate risk, have increasedsince the time of the Paris Agreement. In addition, we investigate which metrics may be usedby investors to proxy a firm’s exposure to either physical or transition risk. To this end, weconstruct portfolios according to the most common firm-specific climate metrics and estimatethe sensitivity of these portfolios to our risk indicators. We compare results from these firmlevelproxies to much simpler sectoral classifications to see if investors may simply pigeonholefirms into the industry they operate in. We find that firm level information appears to beused as a gauge for transition risk, in particular since 2015, whereas sectoral classificationsappear insufficient. However, sectoral classification may be employed to broadly gauge firms’exposures to physical risk. JEL Classification: C58, G12, G14, G28, Q51

Suggested Citation

  • Bua, Giovanna & Kapp, Daniel & Ramella, Federico & Rognone, Lavinia, 2022. "Transition versus physical climate risk pricing in European financial markets: a text-based approach," Working Paper Series 2677, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20222677
    Note: 1884807
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate risk premia; Physical risk; Text analysis; Transition risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects

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