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Global Pricing of Carbon-Transition Risk

Author

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  • Patrick Bolton
  • Marcin Kacperczyk

Abstract

Companies are exposed to carbon-transition risk as the global economy transitions away from fossil fuels to renewable energy. We estimate the market-based premium associated with this transition risk at the firm level in a cross-section of over 14,400 firms in 77 countries. We find a widespread carbon premium—higher stock returns for companies with higher levels of carbon emissions (and higher annual changes)—in all sectors over three continents, Asia, Europe, and North America. Short-term transition risk is greater for firms located in countries with lower economic development, greater reliance on fossil energy, and less inclusive political systems. Long-term transition risk is higher in countries with stricter domestic, but not international, climate policies. However, transition risk cannot be explained by greater exposure to physical (or headline) risk. Yet, raising investor awareness about climate change amplifies the level of transition risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Bolton & Marcin Kacperczyk, 2021. "Global Pricing of Carbon-Transition Risk," NBER Working Papers 28510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28510
    Note: AP
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    Cited by:

    1. Bua, Giovanna & Kapp, Daniel & Ramella, Federico & Rognone, Lavinia, 2022. "Transition versus physical climate risk pricing in European financial markets: a text-based approach," Working Paper Series 2677, European Central Bank.
    2. Michela Scatigna & Dora Xia & Anna Zabai & Omar Zulaica, 2021. "Achievements and challenges in ESG markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    3. Lee Seltzer & Laura Starks & Qifei Zhu, 2022. "Climate Regulatory Risks and Corporate Bonds," Staff Reports 1014, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Mercy Berman DeMenno, 2023. "Environmental sustainability and financial stability: can macroprudential stress testing measure and mitigate climate-related systemic financial risk?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(4), pages 445-473, December.
    5. Pramendra Singh Tank & Sanjay Kumar Jain & Balagopal Gopalakrishnan, 2023. "Do firms respond to commitments on climate change? Impact of COP21 on investment intensity," IIMA Working Papers WP 2023-08-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    6. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Mefteh-Wali, Salma & Viviani, Jean-Laurent & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Lucey, Brian M., 2022. "How do climate risk and clean energy spillovers, and uncertainty affect U.S. stock markets?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    7. Yousaf, Imran & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir & Demirer, Riza, 2022. "Green investments: A luxury good or a financial necessity?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    8. Hao Dong & Tao Li, 2023. "Climate Economics and Finance: A Literature Review," Climate Economics and Finance, Anser Press, vol. 1(1), pages 29-45, November.
    9. Campiglio, Emanuele & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2021. "Macro-Financial Transition Risks in the Fight Against Global Warming," RFF Working Paper Series 21-15, Resources for the Future.
    10. Clark, Ephraim & Lahiani, Amine & Mefteh-Wali, Salma, 2023. "Cryptocurrency return predictability: What is the role of the environment?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    11. Inessa BENCHORA & Aurélien LEROY & Louis RAFFESTIN, 2023. "Is Monetary Policy Transmission Green?," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2023-08, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
    12. Christine Chou & Robin Clark & Steven O. Kimbrough, 2023. "What do firms say in reporting on impacts of climate change? An approach to monitoring ESG actions and environmental policy," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(5), pages 2664-2678, September.
    13. Philippe Loyson & Rianne Luijendijk & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2023. "The pricing of climate transition risk in Europe’s equity market," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-041/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Celso Brunetti & John Caramichael & Matteo Crosignani & Benjamin Dennis & Gurubala Kotta & Donald P. Morgan & Chaehee Shin & Ilknur Zer, 2022. "Climate-related Financial Stability Risks for the United States: Methods and Applications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-043, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Jérémi Assael & Thibaut Heurtebize & Laurent Carlier & François Soupé, 2023. "Greenhouse Gases Emissions: Estimating Corporate Non-Reported Emissions Using Interpretable Machine Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-28, February.
    16. Philippe Loyson & Rianne Luijendijk & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2023. "The pricing of climate transition risk in Europe’s equity market," Working Papers 788, DNB.
    17. Brendan Berthold & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Federico Di Pace & Alex Haberis, 2023. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Carbon Pricing: Macro and Micro Evidence," Discussion Papers 2319, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    18. Dzieliński, Michał & Eugster, Florian & Sjöström, Emma & Wagner, Alexander F., 2022. "Climate Talk in Corporate Earnings Calls," Misum Working Paper Series 2022-6, Stockholm School of Economics, Mistra Center for Sustainable Markets (Misum).
    19. Ferentinos, Konstantinos & Gibberd, Alex & Guin, Benjamin, 2023. "Stranded houses? The price effect of a minimum energy efficiency standard," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    20. Lioui, Abraham & Tarelli, Andrea, 2022. "Chasing the ESG factor," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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