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Variance risk-premia in CO2 markets

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  • Chevallier, Julien

Abstract

This paper proposes a new methodology to measure the volatility of CO2 assets computed as the difference between model-free implied volatility (from option prices) and model-free realized volatility (from high-frequency intraday data), coined as ‘variance risk-premia’ (Carr and Wu, 2009; Bollerslev et al., 2009; Trolle and Schwartz, 2010), during 2008–2011. We find that variance risk-premia are equal to a daily sample average of 0.79 for European Union Allowances and 0.18 for Certified Emissions Reductions. In the spirit of the CAPM, we show that the beta can only explain a small portion, and that macro risk factors specific to CO2 markets and energy volatilities can improve this result. Hence, there exists a systematic variance risk factor in CO2 markets that asks for a highly risk premium. Further analysis shows that variance risk-premia are time-varying, and can be used as strong predictors for forecasting CO2 returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Chevallier, Julien, 2013. "Variance risk-premia in CO2 markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 598-605.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:31:y:2013:i:c:p:598-605
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.12.017
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Variance risk-premia; CO2 market; Model-free implied volatility; Realized volatility; Forecasting; EUA; CER; EU ETS; CDM; Energy volatilities;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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