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Hedging and temporal permit issuances in cap-and-trade programs: The Market Stability Reserve under risk aversion

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  • Tietjen, Oliver
  • Lessmann, Kai
  • Pahle, Michael

Abstract

Cap-and-trade programs such as the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) expose firms to considerable risks, to which the firms can respond with hedging. We develop an intertemporal stochastic equilibrium model to analyze the implications of hedging by risk-averse firms. We show that the resulting time-varying risk premium depends on the size of the permit bank. Applying the model to the EU ETS, we find that hedging can lead to a U-shaped price path, because prices initially fall due to negative risk premiums and then rise as the hedging demand declines. The Market Stability Reserve (MSR) reduces the permit bank and thus, increases the hedging value of the permits. This offers an explanation for the recent price hike, but also implies that prices may decline in the future due to more negative risk premiums. In addition, we find higher permit cancellations through the MSR than previous analyses, which do not account for hedging.

Suggested Citation

  • Tietjen, Oliver & Lessmann, Kai & Pahle, Michael, 2021. "Hedging and temporal permit issuances in cap-and-trade programs: The Market Stability Reserve under risk aversion," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:resene:v:63:y:2021:i:c:s0928765520304231
    DOI: 10.1016/j.reseneeco.2020.101214
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    Cited by:

    1. Kenneth Bruninx & Marten Ovaere, 2022. "COVID-19, Green Deal and recovery plan permanently change emissions and prices in EU ETS Phase IV," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Quemin, Simon & Trotignon, Raphaël, 2021. "Emissions trading with rolling horizons," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    3. Osorio, Sebastian & Tietjen, Oliver & Pahle, Michael & Pietzcker, Robert C. & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2021. "Reviewing the Market Stability Reserve in light of more ambitious EU ETS emission targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    4. Quemin, Simon, 2022. "Raising climate ambition in emissions trading systems: The case of the EU ETS and the 2021 review," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Mo, Jianlei & Tu, Qiang & Wang, Jianing, 2023. "Carbon pricing and enterprise productivity-The role of price stabilization mechanism," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cap-and-trade; Risk aversion; hedging; EU ETS; Market Stability Reserve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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