IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jtsera/v25y2004i1p127-135.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A small-sample overlapping variance-ratio test

Author

Listed:
  • Y. K. Tse
  • K. W. Ng
  • Xibin Zhang

Abstract

The null distribution of the overlapping variance-ratio (OVR) test of the random-walk hypothesis is known to be downward biased and skewed to the right in small samples. As shown by Lo and MacKinlay (1989), the test under-rejects the null on the left tail seriously when the sample size is small. This property adversely affects the applicability of the OVR test to macroeconomic time series, which usually have rather small samples. In this paper, we propose a modified overlapping variance-ratio statistic and derive its exact mean under the normality assumption. We propose to approximate the small-sample distribution of the modified statistic using a beta distribution that matches the (exact) mean and the (asymptotic) variance. A Monte Carlo experiment shows that the beta approximation performs well in small samples. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Y. K. Tse & K. W. Ng & Xibin Zhang, 2004. "A small-sample overlapping variance-ratio test," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 127-135, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:25:y:2004:i:1:p:127-135
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=jtsa&volume=25&issue=1&year=2004&part=null
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amelie Charles & Olivier Darne, 2009. "Testing for Random Walk Behavior in Euro Exchange Rates," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 119, pages 25-45.
    2. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance-Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    3. Azad, A.S.M. Sohel, 2009. "Random walk and efficiency tests in the Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the post-Asian currency crisis data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 322-338, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:25:y:2004:i:1:p:127-135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0143-9782 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.