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Bilateral Trade and Intra-Regional Business Cycles: Is East Asia Feasible for a Currency Area?


  • Lee Yu-Feng L

    () (New Mexico State University)


This paper investigates the synchronization of the intra-East Asian business cycles based on regional bilateral trade statistics. By evaluating three macroeconomic fundamentals: real GDP, industrial production, and unemployment, it is found that tighter intra-East Asian trade may most likely lead to more idiosyncratic business cycles and hence lower correlations of economic activity. When using regional trade as an international openness criterion in the theory of Optimum Currency Area, the finding suggests that for the immediate future, the creation of an East Asian monetary/currency union may not be feasible.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee Yu-Feng L, 2007. "Bilateral Trade and Intra-Regional Business Cycles: Is East Asia Feasible for a Currency Area?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-12, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:7:y:2007:i:3:n:6

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Daniel Stavarek, 2005. "Efficiency of Banks in Regions at Different Stage of European Integration Process," Finance 0502020, EconWPA.
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    Cited by:

    1. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.

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