IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mmf/mmfc06/9.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange rate regimes and trade

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Adam

    (Oxford University)

  • David Cobham

    (Heriot-Watt University)

Abstract

A ‘new version’ gravity model, is used to estimate the effect of a full range of de facto exchange rate regimes, as classified by Reinhart and Rogoff (2004), on bilateral trade. The results indicate that, while participation in a common currency union is typically strongly ‘pro-trade’– as first suggested by Rose (2000) – other exchange rate regimes which lower the exchange rate uncertainty and transactions costs associated with international trade between countries are significantly more pro-trade than the default regime of a ‘double float’. They suggest that the direct and indirect effects of exchange rate regimes on uncertainty and transactions costs tend to outweigh the trade-diverting substitution effects. In addition, there is evidence that membership of different currency unions by two countries has pro-trade effects, which can be understood in terms of a large indirect effect on transactions costs. Tariff-equivalent monetary barriers associated with each of the exchange rate regimes are also calculated

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2007. "Exchange rate regimes and trade," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 9, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.org/mmf2006/up.24061.1140784819.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: The Country Histories, 1946-2001," MPRA Paper 13191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Andrew Rose, 2005. "Which International Institutions Promote International Trade?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 682-698, September.
    3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    4. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: the effect is large," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 449-461, October.
    5. Husain, Aasim M. & Mody, Ashoka & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2005. "Exchange rate regime durability and performance in developing versus advanced economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 35-64, January.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    7. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466.
    8. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072408, January.
    9. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2006. "Fixed exchange rates and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 359-383, December.
    10. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
    11. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
    12. repec:hrv:faseco:34721963 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Emilia M Jurzyk & Bernhard Fritz-Krockow, 2004. "Will You Buy My Peg? the Credibility of a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime As a Determinant of Bilateral Trade," IMF Working Papers 04/165, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tomáš Havránek, 2010. "Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 241-261, June.
    2. Tomasz Brodzicki & Stanislaw Uminski, 2013. "International trade relations of enterprises established in Poland's regions: gravity model panel estimation," Working Papers 1301, Instytut Rozwoju, Institute for Development.
    3. Umar Fachrudin & Fithra Faisal Hastiadi, 2016. "Impact Analysis of Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantageon ASEAN’s Non-Oil and Gas Export Pattern Using Gravity-Model Approach," Working Papers in Economics and Business 201603, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised May 2016.
    4. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.
    5. Christopher Adam & David Cobham, 2008. "Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes for MENA countries: Gravity Model Estimates of the Trade Effects," CERT Discussion Papers 0803, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    6. Wong, Kin-Ming & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2016. "Does monetary policy matter for trade?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 107-125.
    7. Mireille NTSAMA ETOUNDI, 2014. "Impact de la rente pétrolière sur la demande des pays frontaliers du Cameroun," Working Papers 201417, CERDI.
    8. Aditya Rangga Yogatama & Fithra Faisal Hastiadi, 2015. "The Role of Democracy and Governance in the Enhancement of Indonesian Exports to the Organization of the Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Countries," Working Papers in Economics and Business 201504, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised Jul 2015.
    9. Rodolfo Metulini, 2013. "A structural analysis on Gravity of Trade regarding the possibility to remove distance from the model," ERSA conference papers ersa13p520, European Regional Science Association.
    10. Bracke, Thierry & Bunda, Irina, 2011. "Exchange rate anchoring - Is there still a de facto US dollar standard?," Working Paper Series 1353, European Central Bank.
    11. Cobham, David, 2018. "A comprehensive classification of monetary policy frameworks for advanced and emerging economies," MPRA Paper 84737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. repec:eee:touman:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:226-233 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Mahvash S Qureshi & Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2010. "The Empirics of Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade; Words vs. Deeds," IMF Working Papers 10/48, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed & Tsangarides, Charalambos G., 2012. "Hard or Soft Pegs? Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Trade in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 667-680.
    15. Hanh Vu Thi, 2015. "Essays on the Export Performance of Vietnam/Essais sur la Performance à l'Exportation du Vietnam," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/216765, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    16. Emilia Penkova-Pearson, 2012. "Trade, convergence and exchange rate regime: evidence from Bulgaria and Romania," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 1(1), pages 107-139.
    17. Isidro Hernandez Rodríguez, 2011. "Tributación y desarrollo en perspectiva," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 13(24), pages 271-302, January-J.
    18. Robin Pope, 2009. "Beggar-Thy-Neighbour Exchange Rate Regime Misadvice from Misapplications of Mundell (1961 ) and the Remedy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 326-350, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    gravity; geography; exchange rate regime; currency union; transactions costs; tariff-equivalent barriers;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F49 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www.essex.ac.uk/afm/mmf/index.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.