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Exchange Rate Regimes and the Extensive Margin of Trade


  • Paul R. Bergin
  • Ching-Yi Lin


This paper finds that currency unions and direct exchange rate pegs raise trade through distinct channels. Panel data analysis of the period 1973-2000 indicates that currency unions have raised trade predominantly at the extensive margin, the entry of new firms or products. In contrast, direct pegs have worked almost entirely at the intensive margin, increased trade of existing products. A stochastic general equilibrium model is developed to understand this result, featuring price stickiness and firm entry under uncertainty. Because both regimes tend to reliably provide exchange rate stability over the horizon of a year or so, which is the horizon of price setting, they both lead to lower export prices and greater demand for exports. But because currency unions historically are more durable over a longer horizon than pegs, they encourage firms to make the longer-term investment needed to enter a new market. The model predicts that when exchange rate uncertainty is completely and permanently eliminated, all of the adjustment in trade should occur at the extensive margin.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul R. Bergin & Ching-Yi Lin, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Extensive Margin of Trade," NBER Working Papers 14126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14126
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Goya, 2014. "The Multiple Impacts of the Exchange Rate on Export Diversification," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1436, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Cavallari, Lilia, 2013. "Firms' entry, monetary policy and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 263-274.
    3. Liu, Xiaohui & Zhang, Jing, 2015. "Export diversification and exchange-rate regimes: Evidences from 72 developing countries," MPRA Paper 66448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Türkcan, Kemal, 2014. "Exports Margins in Austria’s Export Growth," MPRA Paper 53085, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jean-Christophe Poutineau & Aurélien Eyquem & Stéphane Auray, 2010. "Politique monétaire optimale et effet de variété en économie ouverte," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 193(2), pages 43-58.
    6. Bergin, Paul R; Lin, Ching Yi, 2010. "The Dynamic Effects of Currency Union on Trade," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 11, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    7. Anderson, James E., 2011. "The specific factors continuum model, with implications for globalization and income risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 174-185.
    8. Douglas L. Campbell, 2010. "History, Culture, and Trade: A Dynamic Gravity Approach," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_26, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    9. Cooke, Dudley, 2014. "Monetary shocks, exchange rates, and the extensive margin of exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 128-145.
    10. repec:hrv:faseco:34557509 is not listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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