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Exchange Rate Regimes and the Extensive Margin of Trade

Author

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  • Paul R. Bergin
  • Ching‐Yi Lin

Abstract

This paper finds that currency unions and direct exchange rate pegs raise trade through distinct channels. Panel data analysis of the period 1973-2000 indicates that currency unions have raised trade predominantly at the extensive margin, the entry of new firms or products. In contrast, direct pegs have worked almost entirely at the intensive margin, increased trade of existing products. A stochastic general equilibrium model is developed to understand this result, featuring price stickiness and firm entry under uncertainty. Because both regimes tend to reliably provide exchange rate stability over the horizon of a year or so, which is the horizon of price setting, they both lead to lower export prices and greater demand for exports. But because currency unions historically are more durable over a longer horizon than pegs, they encourage firms to make the longer-term investment needed to enter a new market. The model predicts that when exchange rate uncertainty is completely and permanently eliminated, all of the adjustment in trade should occur at the extensive margin.
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Suggested Citation

  • Paul R. Bergin & Ching‐Yi Lin, 2009. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Extensive Margin of Trade," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 201-227.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:intsma:doi:10.1086/596007
    DOI: 10.1086/596007
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Xiaohui & Zhang, Jing, 2015. "Export diversification and exchange-rate regimes: Evidences from 72 developing countries," MPRA Paper 66448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Türkcan, Kemal, 2014. "Exports Margins in Austria’s Export Growth," MPRA Paper 53085, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. J.-S. Pentecôte & J.-C. Poutineau & F. Rondeau, 2015. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: The Negative Effect of New Trade Flows," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 61-79, February.
    4. Bergin, Paul R. & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2012. "The dynamic effects of a currency union on trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 191-204.
    5. Douglas L. Campbell, 2010. "History, Culture, and Trade: A Dynamic Gravity Approach," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_26, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    6. Cooke, Dudley, 2014. "Monetary shocks, exchange rates, and the extensive margin of exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 128-145.
    7. Bo Xiong & Sixia Chen, 2014. "Estimating gravity equation models in the presence of sample selection and heteroscedasticity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2993-3003, August.
    8. Ardelean,Adina Teodora & Lugovskyy,Volodymyr & Skiba,Alexandre & Terner,David Michael, 2022. "Fathoming Shipping Costs : An Exploration of Recent Literature, Data, and Patterns," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9992, The World Bank.
    9. Harald Badinger & Kemal Türkcan, 2014. "Currency Unions, Export Margins, and Product Differentiation: An Empirical Assessment for European Monetary Union," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 13-30, February.
    10. J.-S. Pentecôte & J.-C. Poutineau & F. Rondeau, 2015. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: The Negative Effect of New Trade Flows," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 61-79, February.
    11. Bin Qiu & Kuntal K. Das & W. Robert Reed, 2020. "The Effect of Exchange Rates on Chinese Trade: A Dual Margin Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(15), pages 3709-3731, December.
    12. Daniel Goya, 2014. "The Multiple Impacts of the Exchange Rate on Export Diversification," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1436, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Anderson, James E., 2011. "The specific factors continuum model, with implications for globalization and income risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 174-185.
    14. Ariel Burstein & Marc J. Melitz, 2011. "Trade Liberalization and Firm Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 16960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem & Jean-Christophe Poutineau, 2010. "Politique monétaire optimale et effet de variété en économie ouverte," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 43-58.
    16. Cavallari, Lilia, 2013. "Firms' entry, monetary policy and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 263-274.
    17. Lin Ching-Yi, 2012. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Trade," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-37, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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