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On the distribution of exchange rate regime treatment effects on international trade

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  • Dorn, Sabrina
  • Egger, Peter

Abstract

This paper provides evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects on trade for six different types of exchange rate regime transitions, utilizing data on 218,643 country-pair-year observations all together. Previous research mainly focused on the currency union effect on trade and widely assumed that country-pairs with identical observable characteristics receive the same effect. We test the hypothesis of a homogeneous treatment effect empirically and find substantive statistical support for the presence of effect heterogeneity. Moreover, we characterize the probability distribution of effect heterogeneity among observationally equivalent country-pairs by way of a random coefficients model. We estimate selected features of the empirical distributions of the treatment effects for each of the six different types of exchange rate regime transitions under two different sets of assumptions about the probability distribution of effect heterogeneity. Our findings suggest that the immediate effects on trade from switching to an exchange rate regime different from the one in the outset have wide waists and exhibit large positive extreme values. We estimate the probability of two countries to experience an immediate positive effect on the growth of bilateral trade due to the adoption of any new exchange rate regime (tighter or not) to be approximately one-half.

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  • Dorn, Sabrina & Egger, Peter, 2015. "On the distribution of exchange rate regime treatment effects on international trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 75-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:53:y:2015:i:c:p:75-94
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.12.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Campbell, Douglas L., 2011. "Estimating the impact of currency unions on trade using a dynamic gravity framework," MPRA Paper 35531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Hou, Jia & Knaze, Jakub, 2019. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Regimes on Business Cycle Synchronization: A Robust Analysis," MPRA Paper 95182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Cushman, David O. & De Vita, Glauco, 2017. "Exchange rate regimes and FDI in developing countries: A propensity score matching approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 143-163.
    4. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marija Logarušić, 2022. "Economic Sentiment and Aggregate Activity: A Tale of Two European Cycles," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 445-462, March.
    5. Dorn, Sabrina & Egger, Peter H., 2013. "Fixed currency regimes and the time pattern of trade effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 120-123.
    6. Egger Peter & Wamser Georg, 2013. "Effects of the Endogenous Scope of Preferentialism on International Goods Trade," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 709-731, July.
    7. Jia Hou & Jakub Knaze, 2022. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycle Synchronization," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 523-564, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate regimes; Bilateral trade; Endogenous treatment effects; Heterogeneous treatment effects; Random coefficients;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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