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Sequential Matching Estimation of Dynamic Causal Models

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  • Michael Lechner

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Abstract

This paper proposes sequential matching and inverse selection probability weighting to estimate dynamic casual effects. The sequential matching estimators extend simple, matching estimators based on propensity scores for static causal analysis that have been frequently applied in the evaluation literature. A Monte Carlo study shows that the suggested estimators perform well in small and medium seize samples. Based on the application of the sequential matching estimators to an empirical problem - an evaluation study of the Swiss active labour market policies - some implementational issues are discussed and results are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Lechner, 2004. "Sequential Matching Estimation of Dynamic Causal Models," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2004 2004-06, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  • Handle: RePEc:usg:dp2004:2004-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    23. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
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    Cited by:

    1. Weili Ding & Steven F. Lehrer, 2010. "Estimating Treatment Effects from Contaminated Multiperiod Education Experiments: The Dynamic Impacts of Class Size Reductions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 31-42, February.
    2. Dettmann, E. & Becker, C. & Schmeißer, C., 2011. "Distance functions for matching in small samples," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 1942-1960, May.
    3. Dorn, Sabrina & Egger, Peter, 2015. "On the distribution of exchange rate regime treatment effects on international trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 75-94.
    4. Lechner Michael & Miquel Ruth & Wunsch Conny, 2007. "The Curse and Blessing of Training the Unemployed in a Changing Economy: The Case of East Germany After Unification," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 468-509, December.
    5. Bernd Fitzenberger & Aderonke Osikominu & Robert Völter, 2008. "Get Training or Wait? Long-Run Employment Effects of Training Programs for the Unemployed in West Germany," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 91-92, pages 321-355.
    6. Katharina Dengler, 2019. "Effectiveness of sequences of classroom training for welfare recipients: what works best in West Germany?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 1-46, January.
    7. Cheng Hsiao & Yan Shen & Boqing Wang & Greg Weeks, 2013. "Evaluating the Impacts of Washington State Repeated Job Search Services on the Earnings of Prime-age," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    8. Fali Huang & Myoung-Jae Lee, 2010. "Dynamic treatment effect analysis of TV effects on child cognitive development," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 392-419.
    9. Michael Lechner & Ruth Miquel & Conny Wunsch, 2011. "Long‐Run Effects Of Public Sector Sponsored Training In West Germany," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 742-784, August.
    10. Dengler, Katharina & Hohmeyer, Katrin, 2010. "Maßnahmesequenzen im SGB II : eine deskriptive Analyse (Measure sequences in Book II of the Social Code)," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201008, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    11. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    12. Bernd Fitzenberger & Stefan Speckesser, 2007. "Employment effects of the provision of specific professional skills and techniques in Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 529-573, May.
    13. Biewen, Martin & Fitzenberger, Bernd & Osikominu, Aderonke & Waller, Marie, 2007. "Which Program for Whom? Evidence on the Comparative Effectiveness of Public Sponsored Training Programs in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 2885, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Bernd Fitzenberger & Olga Orlanski & Aderonke Osikominu & Marie Paul, 2013. "Déjà Vu? Short-term training in Germany 1980–1992 and 2000–2003," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 289-328, February.
    15. Stephan Gesine, 2008. "The Effects of Active Labor Market Programs in Germany: An Investigation Using Different Definitions of Non-Treatment," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(5-6), pages 586-611, October.
    16. Marco Caliendo & Reinhard Hujer, 2006. "The microeconometric estimation of treatment effects—An overview," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 199-215, March.
    17. Dengler, Katharina, 2013. "Effectiveness of sequences of One-Euro-Jobs : is it better to do more One-Euro-Jobs or to wait?," IAB Discussion Paper 201316, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    18. Ruth Miquel, 2003. "Identification of Effects of Dynamic Treatments with a Difference-in-Differences Approach," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2003 2003-06, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    19. Hsiao, Cheng & Shen, Yan & Wang, Boqing & Weeks, Greg, 2008. "Evaluating the effectiveness of Washington state repeated job search services on the employment rate of prime-age female welfare recipients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 98-108, July.
    20. Conny Wunsch, 2007. "Optimal Use of Labour Market Policies," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 2007-26, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    21. Gustavo Varela Alvarenga & Donald Matthew Pianto & Bruno César Araújo, 2014. "Impactsof The Brazilian Science And Technology Sector Funds On Industrialfirms’ R&D Inputs And Outputs: New Perspectives Using Adose-Response Function," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 158, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    22. Michael Lechner & Ruth Miquel, 2010. "Identification of the effects of dynamic treatments by sequential conditional independence assumptions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 111-137, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic treatment effects; nonparametric identification; causal effects; sequential randomisation; programme evaluation; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General

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