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Nonparametric bounds on employment and income effects of continuous vocational training in East Germany

  • MICHAEL LECHNER

This paper explores the potential of an approach suggested by Manski to obtain nonparametric bounds of treatment effects in evaluation studies without knowledge of the participation process. The practical concern is the estimation of the effects of continuous vocational training in East Germany. The empirical application is based on a large cross-section that covers about 0.6% of the total population in 1993. The results are rather mixed. The large width of the intervals obtained emphasize the fundamental problem of all evaluation studies without good knowledge of the relationship between potential outcomes and the participation process. However, in some cases, suitable exclusion restrictions are indeed able to bound the treatment effects strictly away from zero.

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Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Econometrics Journal.

Volume (Year): 2 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-28

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Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:2:y:1999:i:1:p:1-28
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  1. Pfeiffer, Friedhelm & Brade, Joachim, 1995. "Weiterbildung, Arbeitszeit und Lohneinkommen," ZEW Discussion Papers 95-14, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  2. David Card & Daniel Sullivan, 1987. "Measuring the Effect of Subsidized Training Programs on Movements In andOut of Employment," NBER Working Papers 2173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-75, March.
  4. James J. Heckman, 1989. "Choosing Among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods for Estimating the Impact of Social Programs: The Case of Manpower Training," NBER Working Papers 2861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. A. Werwatz, 1996. "How firm-specific is German apprenticeship training?," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,12, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  6. Manski, Charles F, 1990. "Nonparametric Bounds on Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 319-23, May.
  7. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey A. Smith, 1995. "Assessing the Case for Social Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 85-110, Spring.
  8. Lechner, Michael, 1995. "Effects of continuous off-the-job training in East Germany after unification," ZEW Discussion Papers 95-27, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  9. Lisa M. Lynch, 1994. "Training and the Private Sector: International Comparisons," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number lync94-1, August.
  10. Gary Burtless, 1995. "The Case for Randomized Field Trials in Economic and Policy Research," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 63-84, Spring.
  11. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-20, September.
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